Azerbaijanis, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, and Turkmen are becoming victims of open discrimination and attacks. This inhumane treatment was recently experienced by Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, where Russian law enforcement brutally beat them during an arrest related to a 24-year-old criminal case. As a result of torture and beatings, two people died and many were injured. The abuse was not only physical but also deeply offensive and degrading.
To discuss the rise of overt chauvinism and barely disguised fascist ideology in Russia—spreading rapidly against the backdrop of the country’s escalating internal and external crises—Minval.az spoke with Kazakh publicist and activist Arman Shoraev.
— What are the goals and motives behind such a nationalist course, especially considering Russia has few remaining allies?
Let’s start with why Russia decided to invade Ukraine in February 2022. Putin’s plan was to take Kyiv in three days and all of Ukraine in a week, turning at least 30 million of the over 40 million Ukrainians into future ethnic Russians. But the plan failed. I said from the beginning of the war that Putin’s goal was precisely that—to boost the Slavic population through Ukraine. But they broke their teeth on that.
Back then and now, Russia has been facing grim demographic statistics showing the rapid decline of the ethnic Russian population. The war has worsened the situation: Russia has already lost over a million people, killed or wounded. Those injured in Ukraine are no longer reproductively capable, and many potential parents have simply fled the country. In traditionally ethnic Russian regions—like Yaroslavl, Tver, and Nizhny Novgorod—the number of ethnic Russians is plummeting.
On the other hand, the statistics show rising birth rates among Asian and Caucasian ethnic groups. In Russia, the highest birth rates are in Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the Caucasus republics—including among the Azerbaijani diaspora, which has traditionally played an active role in the country’s political and socio-economic life.
The authorities see the biggest threat in the demographic shift: while the Russian population shrinks, Asian and Caucasian groups grow. At some point, ethnic Russians may become a minority in their own country. This could happen within just two or three generations. I believe the Kremlin has decided to artificially slow this natural process—through persecution and ethnocide.
— What consequences could Russia face by continuing this forced assimilation? What should citizens from non-Russian ethnic groups reflect on?
Another aim of this persecution is domestic: in the absence of victories on the battlefield, the Kremlin needs something to feed the people. For Russian authorities, someone is always to blame—whether it’s the “Yankees,” the Anglo-Saxons, or someone else. Now, the internal scapegoating focuses on migrant workers and “churkas” (a racial slur they use for us). We’ve seen this ugly trend for years, and in recent months it has taken on grotesque forms. Putin wants to portray himself as a defender of the Russian people and their future. This is the exact narrative that Germans once bought into before their country became fascist. The same is happening in Russia now—it is sliding into a regime even worse than fascism.
If Hitler’s main enemies were Jews, Russia first blamed the Yankees, then the Anglo-Saxons, then Ukrainians—now they’ve turned on Turkic peoples. The Kremlin is digging its own grave at high speed. After all this, it’s hard to imagine the Russian state surviving.
— It feels like Russia is reverting to the criminal-style “laws and order” of the 1990s. Is this image intentional? What’s the goal?
It seems Putin is trying to place himself on the same pedestal as Stalin—wants to outdo Potsdam, Yalta, and Tehran, presenting himself as a global power broker between the likes of Churchill and Roosevelt. But times have changed drastically in the past 80 years. Putin will never have another Yalta or Tehran. His behavior is the result of political agony. He knows he cannot afford to lose power—any successor would likely hand him over to the democratic world, led by the U.S.
Even the Kremlin has realized that Mr. Trump, who once tried to cozy up to Putin and end the war, is neither an ally nor a friend—in fact, he’s an antagonist. Right now, they’re acting like a monkey with a grenade. For example, we recently saw ex-president Medvedev threaten to give Iran nuclear weapons—only to retract the statement after a firm but measured response from Trump. Clearly, the Kremlin is in a zugzwang—every next move only makes its position worse.
— The repressive actions against Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg seem highly symbolic. The downed Azerbaijani aircraft, massive cyberattacks by Russian hackers, the deportation of an Azerbaijani MP with a re-entry ban, and now the murders in Yekaterinburg—all appear to be part of a pattern. What message is Moscow trying to send to Baku through these vile acts?
The message Russia is trying to send to Azerbaijan is senseless—it’s just jealousy and an inability to control events. Russia cannot come to terms with the fact that former Soviet republics, once entirely dependent on Moscow, can now act independently. What enrages Russia is that Azerbaijan defended its independence and, after nearly 30 years, reclaimed its territories.
The Kremlin is also furious about the recent meeting between Erdoğan and Pashinyan in Istanbul. Such talks wouldn’t have happened without Azerbaijan’s consent. If Azerbaijan and Türkiye manage to pull Armenia out of Russia’s orbit—Armenia, which has always been its loyal vassal—that would be the Kremlin’s worst nightmare. The Zangezur corridor could unite the entire Turkic world, cut Iran off from Azerbaijan, and isolate Russia from the Greater Caucasus. Putin understands this perfectly. His and his entourage’s actions stem from Great Russian chauvinism, fascist ideology, and deep-seated ethnic hatred.
For law enforcement to kill handcuffed detainees is not only a violation of all conceivable laws and norms—it is a crime against humanity. It’s not just baseness or cowardice. It’s ethnocide. It’s revenge against Azerbaijanis for daring to be masters of their own land. Azerbaijan never invaded Russia, never killed Russians for their blue eyes or light hair. Neither did Uzbeks, Kazakhs, or Turkmens—because such behavior does not exist in our cultures. What happened was a public punishment, meant to send a message.
— Will Russia ever admit its wrongdoing?
It’s clear that Russia won’t admit that it was their cross-eyed military who shot down the Azerbaijani civilian plane. It won’t acknowledge it, even in the face of overwhelming evidence from the international community. Just as it didn’t admit responsibility for downing the Malaysian Boeing. This is a people that would eat shit and say it’s raspberry jam.
To a Kazakh, the murder of an Azerbaijani is the murder of a brother. We grieve with you. We hope that everyone involved in these killings will be brought to justice.
