Despite maintaining a façade of diplomatic “peacefulness,” Moscow has consistently shown irritation at Baku’s independent foreign policy—especially in light of Azerbaijan’s close partnership with Ankara.
Against this backdrop, the recently signed agreement expanding military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan is not just a logical continuation of the Shusha Declaration—it is a direct geopolitical signal: a “Ukrainian scenario” in Azerbaijan is unacceptable.
But there is another aspect that deeply concerns the Kremlin. Following the 44-day war, Russia, despite its formal role as mediator, sought to retain levers of control in the region. The deployment of peacekeepers in Karabakh, political interference, economic pressure, and information warfare all became part of a hybrid strategy aimed at curbing Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.
The new military cooperation agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan marks a milestone. It strengthens the foundation of the 2021 Shusha Declaration and effectively formalizes a full-fledged military-political alliance between the two brotherly nations. But more importantly, this move is not just about defense capabilities—it is a message. It is directed not only at regional actors but also at Moscow. Turkey, which possesses NATO’s second-largest army, is sending a clear signal: any military or hybrid pressure on Azerbaijan will be met with a firm response. Ankara views Baku’s security as an extension of its own national security.
Thus, a new deterrence architecture is emerging in the South Caucasus—this time without Russia’s participation. The decline of Russian influence in the region is not only a result of its missteps in the South Caucasus but also part of the broader collapse of Russian foreign policy following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Unable to intervene directly, Moscow is resorting to tactics of pressure through economic levers, energy dependency, media attacks, and attempts to provoke ethnic conflicts. Yet Azerbaijan, relying on its growing army, partnership with Turkey, and successful diplomacy, is effectively neutralizing these threats. Moreover, Baku is presenting other post-Soviet countries with an alternative path: an independent foreign policy is possible, even under Russian pressure.
Most importantly, the Turkey–Azerbaijan alliance is reshaping the balance of power in the region. It is not intended to provoke confrontation—but it sends a clear warning: any attempt by Moscow to impose its will on Baku will be met with strong resistance.
This is also a significant signal to the international community: the South Caucasus is no longer a zone of uncontested Russian influence. A credible military and political counterbalance is emerging—one based on equality and mutual respect, not coercion.
In summary, it seems the “wise men of the Kremlin” are once again stepping on the same rake. Russia is repeating the same mistake it made with Ukraine—ignoring the sovereign right of states to choose their own allies and strategic direction. Like Ukraine, Azerbaijan refuses to submit to neo-imperial logic.
One final point: the signing of the agreement on mutual military security between Turkey and Azerbaijan is not just a piece of paper. It is a message to Moscow—mired in Ukraine, don’t meddle in Azerbaijan. And if you do, Russian mothers won’t be able to give birth fast enough…
Fakhri Akifoghlu
Translated from minval.az
