The investigation into the crash of an AZAL aircraft on the Baku–Grozny route has revealed new details about the tragedy, according to the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU. Findings indicate that two missiles fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defense system directly struck the aircraft. The primary cause of the incident is attributed to chaos and malfunctions in electronic warfare (EW) systems, which “blinded” both civilian aviation and the air defense systems themselves.
At the time of the tragedy, multiple air defense systems were stationed in Grozny, including two Pantsir units, an S-300 system recently deployed from Syria, and a Buk missile system. The missiles were fired by one of the Pantsir crews located in the Visaitovsky District (formerly Staropromyslovsky). This system had been deployed following drone attacks on the Akhmat special forces building. According to the investigation, the crew launched two missiles: the first at 08:13:30 and the second 10 seconds later. Both exploded in the air, with the first detonating at 08:13:50 and the second at 08:14:30. The second explosion is believed to have struck the aircraft.
Investigators interrogated all three members of the Pantsir crew—the commander, operator, and driver. The commander claimed that the target did not appear as a civilian aircraft on the radar screen. He stated that powerful EW systems were active, jamming not only civilian but also military equipment. This prevented the air defense system from correctly identifying the aircraft, which was classified as an unidentified target.
When asked why the target was not recognized as a passenger aircraft, the commander admitted that its altitude and speed could indeed indicate a civilian plane. However, he stressed that he acted on orders received from a commander in Rostov identified as Borisov.
The situation was further complicated by miscommunication between air defense crews. It was revealed that another Pantsir crew identified the target as a civilian aircraft and refrained from firing. However, due to the EW systems, they were unable to warn the second crew, which subsequently launched two missiles. The investigation has yet to determine who activated the EW systems that disrupted both civilian and military communications.
The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reports that the military is attempting to promote a narrative that the missiles were fired at a drone but missed and self-destructed near the AZAL aircraft. Investigators, however, insist that debris and the nature of the damage indicate that the missiles deliberately targeted the aircraft.
Confirmation of this theory comes from revised event timings. New data shows that the strike on the aircraft occurred around 08:14, rather than the previously estimated 08:16.
This conclusion was reached after a detailed analysis of an audio recording of conversations between the dispatcher and the flight crew. In the transcript, a crucial moment was marked as “inaudible” (allegedly to omit a link between the missile explosions and the aircraft strike). However, the original audio clearly captures the phrase, “a bird hit me.” Two minutes later, the crew repeated the message more distinctly.
New data indicates that at 08:14, ground services recorded the aircraft 16 kilometers from the airport, still over the Naursky District.
Testimonies from the Pantsir crew commander revealed that they were not provided with a schedule of civilian flights. The commander contacted Rostov twice via stationary communication lines before launching the missiles.
According to the shift commander servicing the Pantsir, the target was “visually unavailable due to dense fog.” However, the commander of a second Pantsir system stationed at the airport observed the aircraft and, confirming it as a civilian flight, refrained from firing.
This fact emerged from background recordings in the control room. The recordings capture the second Pantsir commander informing the dispatcher via radio that the aircraft was in sight.
When investigators asked why the first commander did not contact the second system’s commander, he responded that stationary communication was “out of order” and mobile phones were “inoperative due to EW interference.”
