This visit was, of course, overdue and came as a consequence and an important element of the overall context of those visible and hidden processes that are happening in the world and, no doubt, affecting our region.
These processes were catalyzed by two truly historic events: first, the 2020 war and the series of one-day operations and anti-terrorism actions that followed in Karabakh and on the conditional Armenian-Azerbaijani border, and second, the war in Ukraine that began in 2022. While the events in Karabakh, which ended with the removal of the Armenian invaders and the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, unfroze and effectively buried the short-lived status quo that had emerged as a result of the first war, thus completely changing (to the annoyance of many actors) the entire geopolitical configuration in the region, the war in Ukraine put the final nail in the coffin of the détente between the West and Moscow that we all witnessed in the last years of the Soviet Union and in the first years after its collapse, when Pentagon generals would visit Russia’s nuclear facilities and walk around like they owned the place.
There has been no trace of that Gorbachev-Yeltsin détente ever since. Today, Russia as the successor to the USSR and the West are not merely adversaries. Today, we can even hear hints of something that was unimaginable in the last years of the first Cold War, namely, various scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons. This has not happened since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Some NATO countries, whether in earnest or not, are now talking out loud about sending their military to the territory that Russia has treated as its fiefdom since the time of Peter the Great and his battles with the Swedes.
After the collapse of the Union State, the three Baltic states, once part of both the Russian Empire and the USSR, became NATO members, and the possible membership of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, countries that have never been members of the CSTO, and even Armenia, a country that still is, albeit formally, a member of this organization, is now being seriously considered. While the three Baltic states were able to “escape”, to the West without territorial losses, Kyiv, Chisinau and Tbilisi have experienced on their political maps the full range of consequences of their attempts to leave the Russian orbit. As for Armenia, there is hardly anything to say about it: it is now a failed state that has become the subject of various humiliating memes.
In this context, the South Caucasus tour of the NATO Secretary General looks quite expected and accurately predicted. Official Moscow’s jealous reaction to this visit is just as natural and understandable. The people on Smolensk Square can see the main goal of NATO very clearly: to finally push Russia out of the South Caucasus and take its place. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson at the latest press briefing openly voiced Moscow’s dissatisfaction, describing Stoltenberg’s tour as an effort to open a “second front” against Russia.
However, this raises a reasonable question: if Russia’s withdrawal from the region is not improbable, how likely is it that the North Atlantic Alliance will take its place? From a practical point of view. After all, the South Caucasus region differs from the Baltics or other parts of the European continent in no small part due to its geography, which is limited for NATO space. Yes, Türkiye is a NATO member, but its borders with Armenia are closed and will remain so until the latter opens the Zangezur corridor. The condition is quite clear, and it turns out that now the West itself should start persuading Yerevan to fulfill Ankara’s (and Baku’s) conditions for opening Armenia’s borders. After getting a red card in Africa, Paris is trying to compensate for this embarrassment by desperately getting into Armenia (even if on board the “tin can” of a Bastion), but it obviously does not grasp that this is not only about Yerevan’s desire and readiness to see its big sister in the country, but there are other regional factors that simply will not allow it.
Georgia is also washed by the Black Sea, but one should not forget about the restrictive provisions of the Montreux Convention. The direct contact of Armenia and Georgia with Iran and Russia, respectively, will hardly be of any joy to these two neighbors either.
Nevertheless, the process has been launched, and the messages have been voiced. This means that we are in for some very interesting, and maybe even very “hot” developments.
As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, the course of our state is most transparent. We are an important political player in the Non-Aligned Movement, cooperating with both NATO and Russia. Our military ally is brotherly Türkiye, and our family in a broader political sense is the Turkic world. This is where we stand. And this is something that is clear not only to our closest neighbors, but also, apparently, to our recent Brussels guest. And it seems to suit everyone, and first of all, our own people.
Zohrab Dadashov
Translated from Minval.az
