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Aze.Media > Logistics-Transport > The South Caucasus reset: how Azerbaijan and Armenia are redefining regional order
Logistics-Transport

The South Caucasus reset: how Azerbaijan and Armenia are redefining regional order

Azerbaijan and Armenia have entered a fundamentally new phase in their bilateral relations—transitioning from prolonged hostility toward pragmatic engagement and emerging economic cooperation. While the path has been complex and fragile, recent developments indicate a gradual but tangible shift toward normalization.

AzeMedia
By AzeMedia Published January 22, 2026 253 Views 6 Min Read
Armenia Azerbaijan Us Flags
Source: Armenian Foreign Affairs Ministry

The Washington-brokered accords and the initialing of the peace treaty text represent a landmark moment, opening the door to lasting peace, regional stability, and shared prosperity in the South Caucasus.

Following the 2020 war, Azerbaijan views the post-conflict period as a historic opportunity to transform the South Caucasus. The long-standing paradigm of confrontation is being replaced with a forward-looking vision centered on regional cooperation, economic development, and open connectivity. This vision aligns with broader Eurasian connectivity trends and responds to global demands for resilient, diversified transport and energy routes.

A central pillar of this transformation is the TRIPP route. This segment is critical for establishing unimpeded, multimodal connectivity between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

Connecting this route with Türkiye is of major regional and global significance. Extending from Central Asia through Trans-Caspian route to Türkiye and reaching to Europe will bring significant benefits to transit countries in any trade.  This also contributes to broader normalization between Türkiye and Armenia.

The recently signed TRIPP Implementation Framework represents a concrete step toward institutionalizing peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The framework positions connectivity not merely as an infrastructure project, but as a tool for regional peace, stability, and economic integration.

Normalization efforts have also extended beyond state-level diplomacy. Public support, open communication, and trust-building are increasingly recognized as essential components of sustainable peace. In an unprecedented development, civil-society exchanges have taken place between the two countries. These exchanges foster dialogue, humanize the peace agenda, and help anchor political agreements within society.

Concrete economic measures further demonstrate that the peace agreement is beginning to materialize in practice. Azerbaijan opened transit for Armenian commercial goods, allowing cargo such as Kazakh and Russian wheat to reach Armenia via Georgia. Armenia, in turn, opened transit for Turkish goods. The two sides have begun trade, including export of Azerbaijani oil products to Armenia. Importantly, Azerbaijan and Armenia are not restoring previously existing economic relations. The two countries have never engaged in direct bilateral trade; what is unfolding today is the creation of an entirely new economic relationship from zero.

These steps contribute to broader regional economic integration.

The Zangezur Corridor—integrated within the TRIPP framework—remains a strategic element of regional transformation. Once operational, it will create new logistical opportunities along East–West routes, serve as a strategic alternative within the Middle Corridor connecting Europe and Asia and enable faster and more efficient cargo transportation across Eurasia.

As transit countries, both Azerbaijan and Armenia stand to benefit significantly. Currently, cargo transport along the Middle Corridor stands at approximately 15 million tons, but with infrastructure investment and the opening of Zangezur, volumes are expected to rise from 160000 TEU to 865000 TEUs by 2040.

Broader normalization is expected to unlock infrastructure investment, energy transit corridors, digital connectivity, rail and road integration etc.

The peace-oriented approach has received international recognition. President Ilham Aliyev was awarded the Zayed Award for Human Fraternity, underscoring the global acknowledgment of Azerbaijan’s role in achieving a long-lasting peace in the South Caucasus.

While healing from decades of conflict will take time, the foundations of a new regional order are being laid. A future based on economic benefits, open borders, and shared prosperity is increasingly within reach. With sustained bilateral commitment and responsible international support, Azerbaijan and Armenia have the opportunity to move forward—united by peace, connectivity, and development rather than divided by conflict.

Parvana Valiyeva is a politician, Member of the Milli Majlis (Parliament) of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Member of the Foreign and Inter-Parliamentary Relations Committee. COP29 Organizing Committee Member.

Eurasiareview

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