The U.S. presidential elections inevitably attract global attention, as they are set to shape not only America’s future but also the trajectory of the West as a global force. The clash between the two main candidates symbolizes a battle of ideologies, approaches, and visions for America’s role both domestically and internationally. The stakes are high: either the ultra-liberal revolution backed by the Democratic Party will prevail, or society will opt for the path of conservative counterrevolution, as advocated by Donald Trump.
Should Kamala Harris win, America would likely continue moving toward progressive liberal changes, a shift initiated during the Obama years. Harris represents a new generation of politicians whose left-leaning views reflect values of globalization, cultural diversity, and human rights initiatives, including support for LGBTQ communities, “cancel culture,” and transgender rights. As a figure of the neoliberal establishment, Harris would probably uphold a multilateral approach in foreign policy, reinforcing the U.S. as a leader of liberal democracy and strengthening alliances with Europe and other Western partners.
For Harris, key foreign policy objectives would include supporting international organizations and opposing illiberal autocracies. She would aim to maintain U.S. dominance in the global order, following the trajectory set by Obama and Biden. Harris supports globalization and envisions America as a guarantor of security and stability within multilateral frameworks.
Donald Trump’s potential return to office, however, represents not merely a continuation of his prior term but a new chapter in American politics. This time, Trump appears not only as a president but as an opposition leader ready to challenge the “deep state” and reassess all former priorities. His platform is built on isolationism and protecting domestic interests, marking a significant shift from America’s traditional interventionist stance. Trump aims to reduce America’s involvement in international affairs and concentrate on domestic renewal and reindustrialization, a strategy that appeals to a segment of Americans weary of U.S. intervention abroad.
Trump seeks to scale back global commitments and rethink America’s leadership concept, focusing on national interests and economic recovery. Instead of multilateral formats, he favors personal diplomatic relations with leaders like Viktor Orbán or Javier Milei, who also oppose globalization. His course implies a revision of the world order, where the U.S. would retain a leading role but refrain from participating in international conflicts unless directly aligned with the country’s interests.
An Identity Crisis and the “American Dream”
America is facing an internal conflict centered around issues of national identity and traditional American values. Democrats and Republicans envision the nation differently: liberals associate America’s future with cultural and ethnic diversity, embracing global trends and societal change, while conservatives wish to revive traditional values and strengthen the middle class, which has suffered under globalization. While Democrats continue to promote “wokeness” and focus on marginalized groups, Trump and Republicans see America’s future in the “golden” 1950s-60s, focusing on economic stability, reindustrialization, and restoring the family as a social cornerstone.
This ideological struggle has fueled talk of a potential division of the country into “Republican” and “Democratic” states. The fundamentally different values make reconciliation difficult, and it’s likely that neither candidate will fully bridge this divide. Consequently, the Supreme Court’s role has become increasingly important, potentially serving as a critical tool in preventing violence and maintaining legal order.
The American economy also faces significant challenges. With a national debt of $35.6 trillion, inflation, and high dependency on monetary stimulus, economic stability is more fragile, reminiscent of “living on credit.” Many Americans are concerned about the future and the country’s economic security. Additionally, pressure on Europe to increase military spending to at least 2% of GDP, alongside buying American arms, has created friction with allies, who now see the U.S. as a less reliable partner.
Rethinking Global Commitments and a Multipolar World
It’s clear that regardless of the election outcome, America’s role in the world will be redefined. Like empires before it, the U.S. now faces the challenge of “imperial overstretch.” The immense cost of global commitments and entanglements in conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Taiwan strain internal stability. The question confronting the American elite: should the U.S. continue its global interventionist policies or focus on domestic recovery? This dilemma echoes the challenges faced by past great powers.
European countries are closely following the election, aware of its implications for future relations with the U.S. If Kamala Harris wins, there may be a reshuffling of key administration figures, adding to the uncertainty. A Trump victory, however, raises concerns in Europe, as he may again distance the U.S. from the EU and reduce American involvement in European affairs, challenging the EU to bolster its own security capabilities. Regardless of the outcome, the U.S. will likely continue pressuring European allies to contribute more financially and militarily.
At the same time, the significance of BRICS and other alternative platforms is growing as they begin to challenge the dollar’s dominance and the principles of Western leadership. Emerging centers of power, such as China, India, Russia, and other developing countries, are gradually shaping a multipolar world, offering alternative mechanisms of cooperation, including new transport corridors, dollar-independent payment systems, and fresh logistical routes. This may lead to a decrease in U.S. global influence, requiring adaptation to the new realities.
In any case, America has embarked on a path of transformation, which will necessitate a reassessment of both external and internal priorities. The global landscape is shifting towards multipolarity, and America must decide whether it is ready to relinquish its role as world leader or find a new balance between domestic development and international obligations.
Alekper Aliyev
