According to The National Interest, Ankara views Iran’s sizeable Kurdish population as a potential threat to its internal unity. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government have so far refrained from participating in the conflict, expressing “sadness” over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and calling for de-escalation.
At the same time, Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan are closely monitoring the situation, focusing on national security concerns and potential migration pressure along Türkiye’s eastern border.
The main trigger for possible cross-border operations could be the growing activity of Kurdish groups, particularly PJAK, amid the crisis in Iran. Türkiye’s previous operations in Syria and northern Iraq suggest that Ankara could attempt to establish a buffer zone.
Experts believe that Türkiye is combining restraint with preparations for a worst-case scenario: intelligence gathering is increasing, monitoring of Kurdish organizations is intensifying, and diplomatic pressure on allies is growing. At the same time, domestic political factors and upcoming elections are still restraining Erdogan from direct military intervention.
