Armenian election result: Aliyev’s strategic victory and Baku’s expectations

The parliamentary elections in Armenia were not merely an internal matter for that country, but an important indicator of regional change. Their outcome can quite rightly be described as a strategic victory for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The key factor in the campaign was precisely the personality of the Azerbaijani leader, his consistent regional policy, and the peace agenda linked to it in relations with Armenia.

Had it not been for Baku’s decisive military-political and diplomatic steps to restore territorial integrity, Armenian political elites would hardly have placed the principle of peace and recognition of borders at the center of their agenda. It was Azerbaijan’s successful policy, which demonstrated the irreversibility of the new realities, that ultimately shaped the outcome of the elections. In practice, the Armenian people are drawing the right conclusions from the events of recent years and understand the inevitability of normalizing relations with Azerbaijan on the basis of international law.

It should be recalled that it was Azerbaijan, acting as the victorious side after the 44-day war, that took the initiative and proposed the basic principles for peace negotiations. This position was not a sign of weakness, but a demonstration of strategic foresight and confidence in its own rightness.

Nikol Pashinyan’s peace agenda gained serious practical support thanks to the policy of President Ilham Aliyev. After the Washington meeting, real conditions were created for ensuring stability on the border. Azerbaijan proposed lifting transport restrictions for Armenia, creating transit corridors for cargo from third countries, developing trade relations without political preconditions, contributing to the energy security of its neighbor, intensifying contacts between civil societies, organizing mutual visits, and significantly reducing the level of aggressive rhetoric. These steps showed that Baku is ready for constructive engagement, provided that Yerevan abandons revanchist illusions.

Baku’s Expectations After the Elections

Now that the elections are over, the time has come for concrete action. Azerbaijan clearly formulates its expectations from Armenia’s new political cycle.

First, all structures, remnants and elements connected with Karabakh separatism on Armenian territory must be completely eliminated. This applies to both formal and informal institutions that continue to support a revanchist agenda.

Second, Armenia must ensure the closure of the so-called “Karabakh representations” and other separatist structures in Russia, France, the United States and other countries. Support for such entities is incompatible with the declared policy of peace.

Third, a referendum must be held as soon as possible and a new Constitution of the Republic of Armenia must be adopted, officially enshrining the renunciation of any territorial claims against Azerbaijan. This would become a key legal step removing the fundamental contradictions.

The logical conclusion of the entire process should be the signing of a full-fledged peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Such a document would formalize the new realities, ensure long-term stability in the region, and open the way for economic cooperation and regional development.

The elections in Armenia have finally confirmed that the era of revanchist myths and illusions has irreversibly passed into history. Azerbaijan, under the firm and confident leadership of Ilham Aliyev, is uncompromisingly setting the regional agenda, relying on the force of law rather than the law of force. Yerevan now has nowhere left to retreat. Any attempts to delay, sabotage, or preserve the remnants of the Karabakh agenda will be regarded as a direct challenge and will receive an appropriate response. The future of bilateral relations, as well as stability in the South Caucasus itself, depends on Armenia’s real, not merely declarative, readiness to fulfill its obligations.

Maqsud Salimov

Minval Politika