The process has been very arduous and the delays are due to outright procrastination on the part of Armenia. Still, a number of experts believe that the signing of a peace treaty soon now looks more realthan ever. We asked former Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov to comment on this issue, as well as on the recent complications in relations with the United States.
Why have relations between Azerbaijan and the United States become so strained recently? What does this have to do with?
The tension is caused by unilateral and extremely unbalanced statements of some US officials, including representatives of the legislative and executive branches of government. Such unbalanced statements caused a sharp response of the official authorities and the public of Azerbaijan, which actively criticizes these statements. Frankly speaking, Azerbaijan’s image and trust in the US has been seriously diminished. A serious damage has been done to the relations, as the Azerbaijani public has developed a very negative opinion about the US.
As for the reasons for these statements, there are several. First of all, Armenia is now going through the phase of coming out from under Russia’s security umbrella. And in order to win some ground with the Armenian public, the United States resorted to statements that they thought the Armenian public might like. According to the Americans, this made them competitive in Armenia’s political field. The second reason has to do with the fact that the US administration and political elite are getting ready for the election, and many of their statements stem not so much from real foreign policy interests and principles, but rather are aimed at political competition in the run-up to the election. Such statements were made taking into account the importance and influence of the Armenian lobby on the political institutions of the United States.
As for strategic goals, Azerbaijan, as well as the United States, is well aware that the United States has no alternative to cooperation with our country. This includes issues related to the US policy on Iran and the growing interest of the US in strengthening its role in Central Asia. That is why, Azerbaijan is of strategic importance for the United States as one of the significant participants of the newly formed international organization such as the Organization of Turkic States. Recognizing this, as well as knowing that such statements are dictated by the current context, Azerbaijan has given a rather strong response to these statements. We will see how the events will unfold further.
Armenia has still not signed a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. What is the reason? Some internal factors or outside pressure on Armenia?
A peace treaty and resolving the existing problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia are one and the same thing. In response to Azerbaijan’s initiative, Armenia proposed to sign a framework agreement that does not solve any problems, but merely defines goals for the future post-conflict period. It is hard to imagine that the border between the two countries can be delimited in a short period of time. It is also hard to imagine that before signing this framework agreement between the two countries the problems of normalization of communications, removal of obstacles for solving humanitarian issues, etc. will be solved. Therefore, the Armenian side considers the document more in the context of its own benefits, trying at the same time to delay the main issues outlined in the 2020 document.
What do I mean? Today there is a lot of talk about a peace treaty, but only a month ago the Armenian side was forced to pull out from Azerbaijani territory 8,000 to 10,000 of its soldiers, who were maintained with money from the Armenian state budget. The occupation administration was also evacuated. In the presence of various speculations about the security of Armenians who lived in Karabakh, no assessment is given to the activities that Armenia was carrying out just a month ago: it was conducting a landmine war in Karabakh. We should remember that the reason for the anti-terrorism operation was the attack on our police officers, the death of two civilians and many other things, as these victims were the last in a chain of similar events, when many civilians were killed, including your journalist colleagues. That is, we can see that while talking about peace, the Armenian side tried to continue annexing the territory of Azerbaijan under the cover of Russia’s peacekeeping operation. So, there is a big gap between the statements of the Armenian side, circulated by many of its foreign sponsors, and real actions. I think this is the reason for Azerbaijan’s reaction to the statements made by the United States, as well as similar statements by French politicians, which have become traditional. Plus, certain ambiguous actions of the Russian peacekeepers. However, it should be noted that Azerbaijan is proceeding in this issue in accordance with its goals and objectives, and it is quite difficult to influence it, as the country has sufficient economic, political and military resources to achieve its objectives.
You mentioned the umbrella from under which Armenia seeks to come out. Is Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO possible and how realistic is the situation that in the future the organization will deploy troops to Armenia under the pretext of protecting civilians from the arbitrary rule of the authorities? After all, this is roughly what one of the latest documents adopted recently as part of the CSTO events sounds like.
It seems to me that such statements are intensively circulated, by the Armenian media as well, because, as I have already mentioned, Armenia is very eager to jump under the Western umbrella, but at the same time this country realizes the danger of such a transition. Therefore, the deliberate inflating of the threats is a way of attracting the attention of Western politicians and gaining more support from them. That is why the statements are not very balanced: they are the result of manipulation on the part of Armenia.
In general, the Armenian political tradition suggests that many external and internal political objectives in this country are addressed through the capacity and resources of other patron countries. It has been sucking everything it could out of Russia, receiving military aid, loans and much more, and now Armenia is well aware that hostile rhetoric towards its neighbors will help it attract new resources from outside. That is why the scenarios we are talking about are being played out. But there is no reason to believe that some countries will send their troops to Armenia. The probability of that is very low. I cannot imagine Kazakhstan or Belarus sending soldiers to Armenia to settle internal political disputes. Perhaps the Russian military stationed in military bases in Armenia will get involved, but I do not believe this is possible. But the tension between Russia and Armenia will continue and deepen.
Essentially, Armenia is now paying the bill for using Russia’s resources for 30 years to carry out the occupation of Azerbaijani territory. Probably, like many others, I will watch this struggle with interest. So, as they say, let’s stock up on popcorn and wait.
There is a persistent opinion in the Azerbaijani public that Russia is enemy number one. Is it changing?
The process we are witnessing should be called the maturation of public opinion to the realization of reality. Some parts of the Azerbaijani population are fanatical about Russia, others are adherents of the West, there are also pro-Iranian circles, etc. But in general, the society has made a serious step towards the development and awareness of pro-Azerbaijani views on the ongoing processes. It should be understood that each of the countries trying to play in the political field of the South Caucasus pursues its own goals first and foremost. At some stage Russia was an extremely negative player in the region, but due to the war in Ukraine its capabilities have significantly decreased. We also see an attempt by France to revitalize its role in the region. Also, after Russia’s withdrawal from the South Caucasus, Iran attempted to fill the vacuum. It is not impossible that the US may also become more active. Such confrontation has taken place before and today it is entering a new phase, but the awareness of the interests of our own state is the most important thing that our society has gained besides the return of the occupied territories. The society understands perfectly well who of these players is what.
Rauf Nasirov
Translated from Minval.az
