The process aimed at achieving lasting peace and normalizing relations between South Caucasus rivals Azerbaijan and Armenia is set to continue in 2026, building on concrete diplomatic, political and economic steps taken over the past year.
The year 2025 marked a period of intensified engagement between the two former Soviet nations, with contacts expanding from political dialogue to confidence-building measures on the ground.
A major breakthrough came on Aug. 8, when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Washington under U.S. mediation and signed a joint declaration reaffirming their commitment to ending decades of conflict. On the same occasion, the foreign ministers of both countries initialed a peace agreement, underscoring a shared determination to advance toward full normalization.
Throughout the year, both sides took steps aimed at fostering mutual trust. Azerbaijan eased restrictions on cargo destined for Armenia, contributing to the functioning of regional trade and transportation routes. The launch of Azerbaijani oil exports to Armenia was recorded as a notable milestone in economic relations and a shift toward pragmatic cooperation.
In the economic and infrastructure dimension, the Trump Route to International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) Project, also known as the Zangezur Corridor, became a central element of the normalization push. Designed to link mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave while strengthening regional trade and transport networks, the project is expected to begin construction on Armenian territory in 2026.
Another significant development was the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which had been tasked for years with facilitating a political settlement to the Karabakh issue but failed to produce results. The move was seen as confirmation that there is no longer a “Karabakh problem” and that Baku and Yerevan have opted to resolve outstanding issues through direct, bilateral negotiations.
Negotiations continued throughout 2025 on border demarcation and the opening of transportation links, while reciprocal visits by representatives of civil society organizations reflected a broader effort to support normalization beyond official channels.
Armenia’s general elections planned for 2026 are also viewed as an important factor shaping the next phase of the process.
Following the elections, a return to power by Pashinyan’s party could open the door to constitutional amendments. In this context, initiating a referendum to remove references to territorial claims against Azerbaijan from the Armenian Constitution is highlighted as a critical step toward finalizing a comprehensive peace agreement.
Looking ahead to 2026, the priorities include concluding the peace accord, legally establishing borders and expanding economic cooperation. By widening cooperation in energy, transportation and trade, both sides aim to anchor their relationship in a framework of lasting peace and regional stability.
