With growing influence after its recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian separatists in 2023, Azerbaijan is using its close ties with Israel and Turkey to defuse tensions between the regional military heavyweights in Syria.
Azerbaijan’s top foreign policy adviser, Hikmet Hajiyev, confirmed Baku has hosted more than three rounds of talks between Turkey and Israel, who are both operating in Syria to reduce what they see as security threats.
“Azerbaijan is making diplomatic efforts for an agreement,” Hajiyev told Turkish journalists in Baku on a visit organized by the Istanbul-based Global Journalism Council.
“Both Turkey and Israel trust us.”
The overthrow of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad by Islamist-led HTS rebels, with Turkey’s blessing, sparked security concerns in Israel.
It has since staged hundreds of strikes deep inside Syria, the latest on Friday, saying it will not tolerate an Islamist militant presence in southern Syrian, near its border.
Israel has troops deployed in the south of the country in the border region, while Turkey’s military is operating in the north of the country. The two countries have reportedly agreed to establish a hotline — via Azerbaijani mediation — to prevent their forces from clashing.
Israel has accused Turkey of trying to turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate, and Ankara has slammed Israeli military activity in the country following the fall of the Assad regime.
As a close ally and strategic partner of Turkey, Azerbaijan has consistently aligned itself with Ankara’s positions on key international matters, including the Syrian issue.
But it also enjoys good relations with Israel — which is very reliant on Azerbaijani oil, and is a major arms supplier to Baku.
And now Baku, which has established contacts with Syria’s new rulers, is pushing quiet diplomacy by facilitating technical talks between Turkey and Israel.
“We are successful if the two parties agree on a common model that respects each other’s concerns,” Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Center for Analysis of International Relations, told AFP.
“Syria, and especially its northern territories, is the Turkish security concern because of the presence of terrorist groups,” notably Kurdish fighters, he said.
Turkey wants to control northern Syria but also to “have a stronger presence” around the Palmyra and T4 airbases to ensure security around Damascus, he added.
The already strained ties between Turkey and Israel have been shattered by Israel’s war against the Hamas terror group in Gaza. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an avowed supporter of Hamas and one of the leading critics of Israel on the world stage.
Less than a month after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, massacre in Israel, Erdogan, whose government had only recently restored full diplomatic ties with Israel, massively stepped up his criticism of the Jewish state. Israel announced it would pull its diplomats out of Turkey in response to some of Erdogan’s inflammatory statements.
Turkey has suspended trade with Israel over the war. The two countries have recalled their ambassadors, though their mutual embassies remain open and are staffed with diplomats.
“As long as the war in Gaza continues, Turkey will not normalize ties with Israel,” a senior Turkish official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
But some Turkish opposition figures have criticized Ankara, claiming trade has continued, notably oil shipments that brings Azerbaijani oil to the southern port of Ceyhan from which it is shipped to Israel.
Turkey’s energy ministry has dismissed the claims as “completely unfounded.”
Azerbaijan’s Hajiyev said Baku had won valuable support from Israel during the Karabakh conflict, but he seemed reluctant to comment on the issue of oil.
“We bought weapons from Israel during the war, we paid for them [and] Israel gave us diplomatic support,” he said.
“Azeri oil is coming to Ceyhan, but once that oil is loaded onto ships that sail on the open seas, you cannot control the final destination,” he said. “These are the rules of the world oil market.”
‘A strategic role’
In facilitating Turkey-Israel dialogue on Syria, Azerbaijan is playing a “strategic role,” said Zaur Mammadov, chairman of Baku Political Scientists Club.
This “reflects Azerbaijan’s growing influence as a mediator… among regional actors,” he said.
Azerbaijan fought two wars with foe Armenia for control of the disputed Karabakh region — one in the 1990s and another in 2020 — before it managed to seize the entire area in a 24-hour offensive in September 2023. Baku is now trying to normalize ties with Yerevan.
Turkish analyst Serkan Demirtas said Azerbaijan had stepped in to head off a potential clash between Turkey and Israel over their opposing security concerns in post-Assad Syria.
“A confrontation between its two best allies in the region is a situation Azerbaijan does not want at all,” he said.
“Incoming news shows that progress has been made. This indicates the growing influence of hydrocarbon-rich Azerbaijan in the region after the Karabakh war.”
Israel was a long-time regional ally of Turkey before Erdogan came to power, but ties imploded after a 2010 Israeli commando raid on the Gaza-bound Mavi Marmara ship, part of a blockade-busting flotilla, that left dead 10 Turkish activists who attacked IDF soldiers aboard the ship.
Repeated efforts were then made to mend relations, but these cratered during every security flare-up between Israel and the Palestinians.
