This is clearly a political provocation for domestic discourse, an election show.
The topic of “protecting Armenia” has become a domestic political issue in France, receiving maximum attention in the media, and political organizations are making it a key point in their election campaigns. Macron aims to demonstrate strength, thereby provoking processes in the South Caucasus region that could approach a dangerous point of no return…
This has happened before in 2020 when France formed an anti-Turkish coalition in the Eastern Mediterranean, bringing Armenia into the coalition. As a result, all the coalition participants independently normalized their relations with Turkey, while Armenia suffered a defeat in the war with Azerbaijan, which was supported by Turkey…
Today, the Armenian Prime Minister also spoke with the Turkish President. This means they have contact, and the Armenian Prime Minister should understand that the appearance of a French military base in Armenia could be the point after which it will be difficult to normalize relations not only with Azerbaijan but also with Turkey.
Pashinyan barely managed to retain power and the country after the 44-day war, and now, when the process with Azerbaijan is in a constructive format and contacts with Turkey have become systematic, getting involved in Macron’s adventures could be costly.
Furthermore, the presence of France in the region has already caused dissatisfaction among regional countries, which could create conditions for coordinated actions in this direction.
Additionally, Pashinyan should not overlook the fact that Macron would not mind replacing him in Armenia with a more compliant politician, and the French ambassador to Armenia has already taken actions that caused sharp discontent in the Armenian government.
Our region will have to withstand the pressure of external forces, who see the limitation of Russia’s resources as an opportunity to increase their involvement in the region. In other words, France seeks to fill the vacuum in Armenia, and Paris’ actions are no different from Russia’s actions 30 years ago. The same arsenal of mechanisms (weapons and bases), the same stimulation of Turkophobia among Armenians, the same narratives about protecting co-religionists…
The outcome for Armenia is obvious! Pashinyan seems to be fighting stereotypes in Armenian society, inspiring by personal example a new way of living, shaking off the shackles of the past… but in geopolitical terms, Armenia’s role and place remain unchanged, and this will have to change…
Farhad Mammadov
Translated from @mneniyefm
