According to reliable sources, about a month before a group of Iranian citizens illegally entered Karabakh, to be exact, at the end of October, Iran had secretly sent to Armenia 600 Iranian-made missiles: the Tehran mullahcracy gifted Armenia 500 Dehlavieh antitank guided missiles and 100 Almas missiles.
Iran, of course, extols in every possible way the capabilities of these systems, claiming that they are unparalleled in the world and effective against the armed forces of the United States and Israel, the two countries Iran considers its biggest adversaries, and representatives of the Iranian military-industrial complex proudly declare that Almas and Dehlavieh, battle-tested in Iraq, can easily destroy Israeli Merkava tanks and American Abrams tanks.
Whether one should take the assurances of the Iranian military-industrial complex at face value is an open question at the very least. But this does not change the political aspect of the matter: the Islamic Republic of Iran is supplying weapons to Armenia, the same Armenia that is plotting reoccupation of Azerbaijani lands and military revenge. And it is unlikely that Iran does not realize who Armenia will target with these missile systems.
Of course, one wonders how these gifts correlate with Ali Akbar Velayati’s “Azerbaijan is the light of our eyes” rhetoric. But then, Tehran’s two-faced and hypocritical policy surprises few. And it is hardly a coincidence that while Iran is playing with fire, Azerbaijan and Turkey conduct their joint “Fraternal Fist” exercises—right by Azerbaijan-Iran border, in the territories liberated from the Armenian occupation.
There is an old rule: military drills are always a political and military message. The tradition of the High-Level Observer Day allows us to make political statements much clearer and voice many realities out loud.
The “Fraternal Fist” exercise was no exception. The day before, a High-Level Observer Day was held here. It was attended by the heads of the defense ministries of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Zakir Hasanov and Hulusi Akar. Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan addressed the participants. Congratulating the personnel, the President of Azerbaijan called the “Fraternal Fist” exercise another manifestation of Turkish-Azerbaijani unity, and stressed that our unity is inviolable and eternal. In turn, the President of Turkey, also congratulating all the personnel, noted the success of the exercises held under the “One nation, two states” motto and stressed that our unbreakable unity will continue in the future. Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan Zakir Hasanov stressed in his speech: “After the 44-day war, reforms are being implemented on behalf of President Ilham Aliyev, the victorious Supreme Commander-in-Chief, to mold the Azerbaijani Army into line with the model of the Turkish Armed Forces. We are lucky because the Armed Forces of Turkey are one of the leading armies in the world. As one nation, two states, we are making good use of this chance.” Hulusi Akar pointed out that any threat or provocation to Turkey or Azerbaijan, regardless of its source, would be recognized as a shared challenge to the brotherly countries. Iran was not mentioned by name. Let alone Armenia.
But the response to the emerging military alliance between Tehran and Yerevan in the region was very graphic. Azerbaijan and Turkey have clearly cut the Iranian generals down to size. The difference in the technological level, military training, and tactical methods was all too obvious and vivid. And rest assured, it was not evident only in the crossing of the river by means of pontoon bridges.
But perhaps we should change the scale of the picture here. And recall that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran has not been able to swallow the pill of independent Azerbaijani statehood. Iranian officials have from time to time allowed themselves to make snide remarks about the “lost lands” in the north. They have regularly tried to set up spy networks and provoke armed revolts in Azerbaijan. Tehran’s affectionate friendship with Yerevan fits into the same pattern. Now, they added to all those diplomatic tricks, provocations and spy games a military component in the form of exercises involving practice of offensive operations. Iran is essentially deploying the same “hybrid scenario” against Azerbaijan—without a real war so far, but with threatening drills. Baku offered peace and good neighborly relations, but Tehran’s response was very different in tone.
True, military exercises do not necessarily escalate into a real war. But pulling troops to the borders of another country, practicing offensives, forced crossing of rivers, and so on, are definitely a red flag. And if it is accompanied with a bacchanalia of threats in the information space, all the more so. Finally, Iran’s actions leave a persistent feeling of a “deja vu with an Armenian accent”. In March 2019, David Tonoyan, then Armenia’s defense minister and a notorious “hawk”, openly promised “a new war for new territories”, “assault groups behind enemy lines”, etc. In September of the same year, 2019, Armenia arranged large-scale military drills in the occupied Azerbaijani lands, with live firing and offensive training. Azerbaijan responded with its own tactical exercises. And then the 44-day war happened, which ended with Armenia’s total defeat.
Now it is Iran that is conducting threatening exercises. It seems that Azerbaijan’s patience has run out. As it turns out, Azerbaijan’s peacefulness has its limits. In response to all of Tehran’s aggressive antics, Baku and Ankara are clearly demonstrating to the Iranian regime the price it may have to pay. They are sending their message: Iran will have to deal with the combined military power of the two countries, including the Turkish F-16s. The mullahcracy will no longer afford not thinking about what will happen if Iran crosses the “red line”. What will happen will not be a drill.
