Historian, Director of the Caucasus History Center Rizvan Huseynov commented on the situation in the South Caucasus that has developed after the Munich negotiations between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, with the mediation of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Huseynov touched upon the geopolitical situation in the region, which has resulted from the aggressive policies of France and its leadership.
“Immediately after the negotiations with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Munich, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hurriedly left for a visit to France. His meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron took place, followed by statements from French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his visit to Yerevan, accompanied by militant rhetoric. Unfortunately, this indicates that Yerevan lacks high political agency. That is, it does not take responsibility for the words spoken during meetings, while decisions are made by external partners,” he noted.
“If previously Russia was the main curator of Armenia and the country followed Moscow’s views on regional policy, now the curator has changed to France. And, since France has no desire to contribute to peace and stability in our region, it will use Armenia to destabilize.
Experience from previous years has shown how exactly this will be implemented. Using the example of the Karabakh Armenians, we saw how France used and expended them for its interests. France failed to pressurize Azerbaijan in this way. Apparently, the stakes are rising, and now official Paris intends to expend Armenia. As a result, Armenia and the Armenian people will suffer,” Huseynov expressed confidence.
“Such is the price of the game. Re-arming Armenia is, of course, its own business, but it becomes clear that this process distances peace and the peaceful negotiations that Azerbaijan has proposed.
Let me remind you that after the 44-day war, the peace agenda was not proposed by some external countries – not France, not Russia, not the USA. It was proposed by the victor – Azerbaijan. And this was a chance for Armenia to negotiate with Azerbaijan on more favorable terms.
All these chances have unfortunately been squandered by official Yerevan over the last two or three years. We see the results now. And currently, the chance offered by Azerbaijan is perceived in Yerevan as a weakness of Baku. Either they wrongly understand the risks created by France. France, in fact, using the good intentions of Azerbaijan, its peace agenda, is trying to build its new game,” the historian notes.
“It’s up to Yerevan. But again, we see shootings at the border. And this indicates that France and a number of countries are preparing us for a regional conflict. Azerbaijan does not want this conflict, but France and a number of countries do. In such a case, Azerbaijan will be preparing for a military option if it becomes inevitable or its risks increase.
Azerbaijan will be preparing for it. Azerbaijan’s allies and partners will also be preparing. And as a result, the security of the Armenian state will be at risk.
If peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan proceed against the backdrop of escalation and arming of Armenia, it turns out that by spring-summer-autumn of this year, we may closely approach a situation where a military solution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia may become inevitable,” the expert wrote.
“That is, the last three years have not convinced Armenia, or rather, those behind it, that it is unnecessary to further escalate the situation and attempt to fight. That is, the 44-day war and the subsequent anti-terrorist measures by Azerbaijan have not convinced Yerevan that there is no alternative to peace. In Yerevan, they still believe that there is a possibility to pressure Azerbaijan. But if they think so, as the saying goes, let them dare. But in this case, the Armenians themselves will bear all the responsibility.
The Armenian society believes that it would be more honorable and preferable not to agree with Azerbaijan at the negotiation table, but to lose to it on the battlefield. But if the Armenian society is only ready for dialogue in this way, then Azerbaijan will have to continue. Because over the last three years, the entire negotiation process has progressed only by means of force. And all the main issues were resolved not at the negotiation table, but on the battlefield,” Rizvan Huseynov stated.
