In a wide-ranging interview with Political Editor Nick Powell, Mr Amirbayov also discussed his country’s role in Europe’s energy security and as part of the Middle Corridor trade route.
Elchin Amirbayov came to Brussels with a busy schedule, aimed at strengthening relations not just with the EU as a whole but with Belgium in particular, mindful that the country will hold the presidency of the European Council for the first half of 2024. As well as talking about the potential for boosting trade he was taking the opportunity to brief ministers, parliamentarians and other stakeholders about the efforts to finally normalise relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
EU-Azerbaijan relations grew last year when Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku to sign an agreement to double Azerbaijan’s gas exports to Europe. It was an agreement reached in the context of the EU’s wish to end its dependence on Russian gas but Elchin Amirbayov emphasised that his country had more than oil and gas to offer as a reliable partner of the European Union.
“Besides the traditional role of energy exporter that Azerbaijan is known for, we are trying to play an important role in terms of connectivity, especially against the background of what’s going on with the war between Russia and Ukraine. The geoeconomic and geopolitical importance of what we call the Middle Corridor has increased”, he said.
The Middle Corridor allows trade between Asia and Europe to avoid both the land route through Russia and the alternative lengthy ocean voyage. Instead it crosses the Caspian Sea between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. “Azerbaijan has always been at the crossroads of continents and civilisations and has already proved its reputation as a credible partner”, he stressed.
There was also much more to be done within the energy sector. New investment in capacity was required to meet the commitment to pump the enhanced volumes of natural gas to Europe by 2027. Elchin Amirbayov was confident that commitment would be met but it was important to look beyond oil and gas as well.
“What’s important when we talk about energy, it should not be reduced to only about hydrocarbons. We are also thinking seriously about diversifying our energy portfolio and we’re working now with a number of countries to help us develop renewable energy because we’re very strong in wind and solar potential”, he said.
“That explains the recent contracts signed by some Middle Eastern countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to help us create those infrastructures. Last but not least, recently we signed a quadrilateral agreement between us, Georgia, Romania and Hungary to export potentially electricity from Azerbaijan underneath the Black Sea. So it’s another huge clean project, which shows there is a level of consciousness in Azerbaijan that we need also to join this current world trend, in terms of transitioning from hydrocarbon resources to clean energy”.
Similarly ambitious investment was developing the potential of the Middle Corridor trade route. “We do have pipeline infrastructure, gas and oil, we have railroad, we have a state-of-the-art brand new maritime port, in the vicinity of Baku”, he added. “This port of Baku is already engaged in contacts with some of the Western European partners to see how this Middle Corridor could be used. We’re talking with Antwerp-Brugge, we’re talking with Rotterdam and with others. So that’s why I think it’s not only energy, it’s also goods which could be transited through our territory”.
For Azerbaijan, it was also about the possible engagement of the European Union in its government’s efforts to bring life back to the territories liberated in the Second Karabakh War, fought with Armenia in 2020. Elchin Amirbayov described how 10,000 square kilometres of territory were completely devastated by war.
“You don’t see any single building that was untouched. All the cultural buildings and infrastructure have been destroyed completely. So that’s why we are looking for partners who can help us, at least to face the most important humanitarian challenge -that is de-mining. As a result of this conflict, Azerbaijan became one of the most contaminated territories in the world, with land mines and unexploded ordnance still there and still costing human lives.
“What’s important is that because these lands are still not cleaned up, the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons and refugees cannot go back to their homes, even though these territories are no longer under foreign occupation. We cannot let them go back unless we are sure that this territory is safe”.
Mr Amirbayov stated that the huge challenge of first de-mining and then rebuilding meant that Azerbaijan didn’t want fresh confrontation with Armenia, putting a risk a still fragile peace. He said his country was seeking a peace agreement based on the principles of international law, including the reciprocal respect of each other’s territory, the inviolability of borders, a rejection of territorial claims now and in the future and the delimitation of the border.
He looked forward to a new era when animosity, rivalry and confrontation are at an end and the Southern Caucasus becomes what he called a “normal political region”. He said Armenia was suffering due to the lack of a peace agreement, as its borders with Azerbaijan and Türkiye were closed and trade routes that existed in Soviet times had been destroyed.
“So what we suggest with them is a win-win strategy, not a victor’s peace and we impose it. No, we say with it Armenia will benefit even more because it will be open to investment, for example, from countries around it. It would be considered as a relatively stable place which is not actually risking any new confrontation with its neighbours.
“So that’s why we don’t really understand why Armenia demonstrates this spirit of procrastination. Why are they playing for time? Why are they shying away from direct negotiations? Why they every now and then speak about revanchism. So it’s very hard for us to grasp it”.
The Armenian Prime Minister has now told his parliament that his country recognises the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and has called for a peace treaty to be signed. Nikol Pashinyan said the Armenians had deceived themselves for decades by claiming Azerbaijani territory. However, as recently as last September he denied that he would recognise Azerbaijan’s borders.
“We’re not sure about whether Pashinyan is serious or not because there is a discrepancy between his declarations on the one side and concrete actions he and his people are doing on the other”, Elchin Amirbayov told me, adding that it made it very hard to engage fully with him. But he was optimistic about a resumption of peace efforts by European Council President Charles Michel, whom he described as an honest broker representing a union of 27 nations with no hidden agenda.
“What we do not accept is that for almost six months now, the EU has been rendered completely inactive -let’s put it that way- by the blockage to their continued role by Armenia and some of their allies within the EU. We regret that very much”. Mr Amirbayov said Azerbaijan hoped that no matter what the difficulties, Mr Michel would soon resume his role as a facilitator and that he had confirmed as much in a conversation with regional leaders.
A further incentive for signing a peace treaty was the possibility of reconstructing 42 kilometres of railway across Armenia, linking Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan and creating a new route to Türkiye, in addition to the existing line through Georgia. “This could also be an important confidence-building measure between the two nations … another reason to stick to the peace agreement that we hope will be soon signed”, Elchin Amirbayov told me.
More capacity was also needed on the route through Georgia. Azerbaijan has already said it is ready to invest its own resources and expects the same decision by Georgia and Türkiye. “This is something doable, I don’t see any big problem. This northwestern route, which already exists, could be reinforced by the alternative southern route and then market economic principles will enter, whichever of the two is more efficient will be the leading one. It’s good to have an alternative” said Mr Amirbayov.
Turning to Azerbaijan’s neighbours beyond the Southern Caucasus, Elchin Amirbayov said that in the last year or so Azerbaijan has upgraded relations with all five nations of Central Asia to reflect the growing importance of trade across the Caspian Sea, which he said could become the centre of a region of peace and cooperation. “Several years ago negotiations were finalised on the status of the Caspian Sea. The only country which has not yet ratified this agreement is Iran, so we hope that will be done”.
But he said there were “no new magic solutions” when it came to rebuilding relations with Iran. It was a case of trying to intensify the work through political and diplomatic channels. There had been telephone conversations between foreign ministers and declarations at a higher level. The two nations shared so much history and culture, with a large Azerbaijani community in Iran.
Relations with Russia would remain pragmatic, with an understanding of its historical regional role. A signatory to the Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire agreement, Russia has ‘boots on the ground’. Its peacekeeping contingent is present at the invitation of the Azerbaijani government to provide for the physical security of ethnic Armenians in Karabakh.
Elchin Amirbayov concluded by saying that Azerbaijan would continue to “look at the map and the size of those countries who surround us and learn only one thing, that you need to be very vigilant and very prudent and on the positive side of history. That explains our ability to maintain this very fine balancing act between different players when we form and carry out our foreign policy … we are not interested in taking any sides in any confrontation”.
