The main threat to Armenia turned out to be somewhere else entirely

An election campaign can be compared to a kind of “political supermarket”. Or, more precisely, a bazaar. Each party offers the “product” it believes to be most in demand, while also being convinced that its competitors could not offer anything similar even if they wanted to. Armenia is no exception. Except that some of the “products” being offered there are very peculiar indeed.

In Armenia, opponents of the incumbent prime minister constantly play — or rather try to play — the “Azerbaijani threat” card. At a recent rally in support of Samvel Karapetyan, Azerbaijani music was played, with a text in Azerbaijani dubbed over it: “now all this will be ours”, “nice apartment, I like it”, and finally, “may God grant health to their prime minister”, followed by a shout of “Stop!”

The subtext is clear: according to the authors of the audio, if Pashinyan remains in office, Yerevan will be taken over by “evil Azerbaijanis”. Several times, videos have been circulated in the information space showing “terrifying Azerbaijanis” preparing to move to Armenia. In the first one, there is a Turkish mosque on the site of the memorial to the victims of the “genocide”, and an “Azerbaijani” news broadcast on Armenian television claiming that the number of Armenians is 300,000, while the number of Azerbaijanis is 3 million. In the second, buses carrying settlers depart directly from the main square of Icherisheher to Yerevan. Figures such as Robert Kocharyan constantly argue that if they had been in charge of Armenia, “Artsakh” would not have been lost. And finally, as Minval has already reported, Samvel Karapetyan openly promises to “cause trouble” for Azerbaijan if he is elected prime minister. Meanwhile, the main “proof” of the existence of the “Azerbaijani threat” has been and remains the discussion in our country of the topic of Western Azerbaijan.

But here is the thing.

As Minval has already reported, the first international academic conference titled “Return to Western Azerbaijan as a New Stage of the National Idea”, jointly organized by Baku State University and the Western Azerbaijan Community, is concluding its work in the capital. The forum’s program includes historical, legal, political, cultural and socio-philosophical aspects of the return to Western Azerbaijan, as well as its significance in terms of regional peace and security. The working panels held as part of the conference are devoted to the protection of humanitarian and cultural heritage, sovereignty and historical justice, as well as the legal framework and legal aspects of return. Naturally, the historical heritage of Western Azerbaijan, including folklore, will also be discussed. Again, there is no sabre-rattling, no display of threats, and so on. The discussion is exclusively about humanitarian aspects.

Moreover, as Minval has also reported, the third festival-congress “Return to Western Azerbaijan” will be held on June 18–19 in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, more precisely in Ordubad. It will be jointly organized by the Office of the Plenipotentiary Representative of the President of Azerbaijan in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, the Ministry of Science and Education, Nakhchivan State University and the Western Azerbaijan Community. During the congress part of the event, scholars, researchers and public figures will deliver reports on the realities of Western Azerbaijan, historical heritage and the prospects for return. The festival part will feature presentations reflecting national and cultural values.

In other words, there are no military aspects, no discussions of possible territorial claims, and no denial of present-day Armenia’s rights to Western Zangezur — although, let us be honest, there is much to discuss there. But in its policy, Azerbaijan clearly adheres to the principles of international law in general and respect for territorial integrity in particular. Yes, both the conference in Baku and the upcoming festival in Ordubad show that the topic of return to Western Azerbaijan remains present in public discourse.

Moreover, Baku did not decide to “pause” discussion of this topic during Armenia’s election campaign. The point is not even the extent to which Azerbaijanis are interested in Pashinyan’s victory. Something else matters more: today, Baku shapes the domestic political agenda in Yerevan, not the other way around. But let us emphasize once again: Azerbaijan has no military plans against Armenia. Our country achieved a brilliant victory in Karabakh, liberated its own territories and has no intention of seizing anyone else’s. Contrary to the fears and scare tactics of Yerevan’s revanchists, the topic of return to Western Azerbaijan is not about territorial claims against Armenia, but about humanitarian law. The problem is that trading in fear and hatred seems to some people like a good way to accumulate electoral capital. Apparently, not everyone in Yerevan has drawn the right conclusions from the lost war.

But the whole issue is that campaign promises then have to be fulfilled. And that is far more dangerous. Any attempt at official revanchism is guaranteed to derail the peace process. And that process, let us recall, includes both border delimitation and mutual recognition of territorial integrity. If Armenia abandons these conditions, this will not be a one-sided game. Especially since Azerbaijan reserves the right to respond to provocations — political ones, and all the more so military ones. And since our country has already achieved a military victory and consolidated that victory through diplomacy, there is no doubt that the results of revanchism on any platform would prove extremely painful for Yerevan.

So Armenian voters should not fear “foreign Azerbaijanis”, but their own revanchists. The question is whether they will understand this before June 7.

Nurani

Minval Politika