The main political news of the South Caucasus is coming from Washington. And there is no doubt that these developments — more precisely, the agreements reached in the United States and the documents signed — will determine the political trends of the entire region, not just Azerbaijan and Armenia, for years to come.
Summing up the results of such “diplomatic rounds” is both easy and difficult. The names of the documents speak for themselves: suspension of Section 907, a cooperation agreement between SOCAR and Exxon Mobil, and finally, the documents that cemented progress in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan and the new realities of the Zangezur Corridor, where the guarantor is now the United States, led by President Donald Trump… But by detailing each of these documents separately, there is a risk of “not seeing the forest for the trees” — of overlooking the titanic, often invisible diplomatic work that Azerbaijan, under the leadership of its President Ilham Aliyev, has carried out both on the American track and in the peace process.
It is worth recalling how, back in 2024, about three months before the US presidential election held on November 5, President Ilham Aliyev, at the Global Media Forum in Shusha, spoke very highly of Donald Trump’s performance during his first presidency, noting that no wars had begun during his term, that the Republican candidate prioritized family values, among other things. Such support is valuable. At the next Global Media Forum, in 2025, the President of Azerbaijan once again praised Trump’s efforts to advance the peace process between Baku and Yerevan and his desire to “drain the Washington swamp,” promising Azerbaijan’s support if necessary. This particular excerpt from Aliyev’s speech, it should be recalled, Trump shared on his social media account. This was more than just “attention and appreciation” — astute experts already understood at that time that US–Azerbaijani relations were reaching a new level, successfully overcoming the legacy left by the “most pro-Armenian administration in history” of Biden and Blinken.
In the US, a memorandum was signed to establish a working group that will prepare a Charter on Strategic Partnership between the two countries. A similar document, it should be noted, had been signed by the Biden administration with Armenia at the very end of its term, without any thought of balance. Now, however, Baku and Washington are working on a document that is not a “paper for the sake of appearances” or a “political rush job,” but one that will serve the interests of both countries. It will open opportunities for Azerbaijan to cooperate with the US not only in the traditional sphere of energy, but also in regional transit, artificial intelligence, counter-terrorism, and the supply of defense products.
The discriminatory Section 907 is being suspended. One can cite all kinds of statistics to argue that this amendment no longer had a significant impact on bilateral relations, that Azerbaijan no longer depended on US aid, and that the events of 1992 could be consigned to history — much water has passed under the bridge… But the point is that not only much water, but also much blood, has flowed since then. Importantly, Section 907 began to be adjusted as early as the 1990s. Its suspension was first agreed upon in 2001, when after the September 11 attacks Washington launched a military operation in Afghanistan and needed Azerbaijan’s logistical support. Yet “Sleepy Joe” not only hastily withdrew US troops from Afghanistan (in what looked very much like a retreat), but also pulled Section 907 out of the trash bin, carefully smoothed it out, and put it back on the table. Now it has once again been sent where it belongs — to the trash.
Equally noteworthy are the developments on the track that can be described as both “peace” and Armenian–Azerbaijani. Calls to turn the page on conflict and jointly build a peaceful future were already being voiced in Azerbaijan in the days when the smoke from the 44-day Patriotic War had not yet fully cleared over Karabakh and East Zangezur. Unfortunately, at that time Yerevan was too absorbed in hopes of revenge.
Now, in Washington, the results have been formalized. The peace process is developing precisely according to the “roadmap” drawn up by Azerbaijan. The peace agreement is based on mutual recognition of territorial integrity. There is no mention of “the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh,” “delayed status,” or other loopholes for revanchism — though, let us be realistic, there were attempts to insert such provisions. Armenia has fulfilled one of Azerbaijan’s important conditions — Nikol Pashinyan, together with Ilham Aliyev, signed an appeal to the OSCE to dissolve the Minsk Group. For now, the agreement has only been initialed by the foreign ministers; the formal signing will take place after amendments are made to Armenia’s Constitution. Importantly for Azerbaijan, the long-stalled issue of transit to Nakhchivan has moved forward — now to be implemented under US guarantees.
Such an outcome is more than logical.
One can debate when exactly the “military turning point” occurred in the region. Strictly speaking, analysts began to say as early as April 2016 that the conflict now had a military solution and that talk of an Armenian “military victory” was premature. By the time of the Washington round, however, no doubts remained. Azerbaijan won a brilliant victory in the 44-day Patriotic War, liberating the Araz Valley, East Zangezur, the cities of Shusha and Hadrut. It firmly suppressed attempts by Yerevan and its backers to rewrite the results of the war — from the infiltration of saboteurs into the forests of Khojavand in December 2020, to fortification games that prompted the Qisas and Qisas-2 military operations, to the placement of an Azerbaijani border checkpoint in Lachin, to repelling Armenian provocations along the conditional border. By the time negotiations began in Washington, Yerevan had no room left for illusions: Azerbaijan had not only won the war but also secured advantageous starting positions for talks — reinforced by its independent energy policy, well-thought-out logistics, and broad international support.
This is exactly what a diplomatic victory looks like.
