“The Azerbaijani army is very strong and combat-ready, it can kick the Iranian army’s butt, especially if Türkiye intervenes. But I think that everything is at the level of threats now, because in reality the sides are not interested in armed clashes.
“I am expecting escalation, military incidents, but direct hostilities are extremely unlikely,” Arestovych believes.
According to him, Armenia’s chances in this situation are also slim: “calling for help from Russia and the CSTO is pointless,” and the border with Russia “is not an area of vital interest for Tehran”.
“The Iranians will drive their tanks here and there, trying to intimidate Azerbaijan and Türkiye, but the problem is that Azerbaijan and Türkiye do not get scared and probably even want Iran to ‘twitch’. From that perspective, this is a chance for Israel and the US to take advantage of the situation. Besides, we should not forget that there are many, many Azerbaijanis living in South Azerbaijan, which is part of one big Azerbaijan, I would say a couple of tens of millions, they say 18 to 28, but this is a lot for Iran. How would they react to an attempt to go to war with the Azerbaijani army? I mean, this is the one and the same people. There is no way to tell. Iran itself might have internal problems afterwards. Therefore, saber-rattling does not mean that the Iranians will try to use those sabers,” Arestovych stressed.
