The diplomatic coup gives the United States its most significant position of influence in the Caucasus, an area historically out of its purview. In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Azerbaijani Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim praised Trump’s leadership as essential in securing the deal. He claimed Baku was confident that Trump would bring about positive developments in the Caucasus from day one of his second term, after enjoying favorable relations during his first term.
“We saw a strategic vision. And of course, President Trump is a true leader, a true peacemaker. So that’s why we knew from the very beginning, after he was elected, that there will be more efforts, not only in our region, but all around the world, for peace, prosperity, and development,” Ibrahim said. “So, therefore, it came very naturally that the new administration was interested in bringing peace and development to the region, and we worked together, and here we are.”
The Aug. 8 agreement constitutes several documents, and isn’t exactly a peace treaty per se. The documents largely amount to a memorandum of understanding, with the two countries’ foreign ministers initialling a peace agreement, and Aliyev and Pashinyan signing a joint declaration to pursue a lasting peace.
“We acknowledged the need to continue further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of the Agreement, and emphasized the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace between our two countries,” the declaration read.
As Ibrahim explained, the initialling by the foreign ministers fixes the current agreement in place, “which literally means, when you initial it, that it is there, you cannot change it. It is fixed, and the only thing that is needed is just to sign it at some point.”
The concrete proposal outlined in the documents resolves one of the longest-lasting barriers to peace, establishing a corridor linking Azerbaijan with its Nakchivan exclave. To overcome the disagreements between the two, the corridor will be put under American management, named the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” or TRIPP.
The establishment of a U.S.-controlled corridor both incentivizes development in Armenia and Azerbaijan, establishes a direct trade link between Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey, and gives the U.S. a direct economic interest in preserving peace and stability in the Caucasus. The deal reflects Trump’s strategy of mixing economics and diplomacy, giving the U.S. a tangible stake in the area.
The Oval Office meeting that oversaw the signing of the documents showcased a beaming Aliyev and Pashinyan shaking hands over Trump, a marked turnaround from the hostility that has marked Armenian-Azerbaijani relations since the outbreak of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1988.
The fall of the Soviet Union is broadly viewed in the West as a historical triumph due to the bloodlessness with which the “Evil Empire” fell. This telling misses much of the historical truth, as bloody conflicts broke out in Moldova, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. The bloodiest of these conflicts broke out between the formerly fraternal peoples of Armenia and Azerbaijan, centered on the region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
As the USSR began to crumble, the majority ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh sought to join their co-ethnics in Armenia. The issue quickly escalated into mass bloodletting, with tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis expelled from their homes. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh escalated into a full-blown war between the infant states of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The smaller but more united Armenia eventually triumphed over the politically unorganized Azerbaijan in 1994. Over 500,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis were expelled from their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding areas, a humiliation Baku would remember for the next three decades. Yerevan and Baku failed to reach a lasting peace agreement, with the conflict essentially frozen like the Korean War.
When war broke out again in 2020, fortunes were reversed. Azerbaijan had spent the previous 26 years consolidating and building its military with Turkish and Israeli help. Over 44 days, the Azerbaijanis steamrolled their Armenian and ethnic Armenian opponents in Nagorno-Karabakh, winning a decisive victory. Three years later, Azerbaijan annexed Nagorno-Karabakh outright. An estimated 120,000 ethnic Armenians, almost the entire population, fearing persecution, fled their homes for Armenia.
Despite Azerbaijan’s obvious victory, an actual peace agreement has evaded the two sides since the September 2023 war. The Aug. 8 agreement with U.S. mediation came as a surprise breakthrough for many, as it was previously Moscow that oversaw negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.
Ibrahim argued that the biggest impediment to peace was psychological.
“It was about trust, I believe, because since regaining our independence, Azerbaijan and Armenia, we never had a time when we had a real peace. The occupation was there. We were trying to solve these issues for quite a long time. There were mediators. Nothing was happening. And of course, there was no trust. I think this trust has started to be built. So that was the biggest impediment: trust. I wouldn’t say that today we have full trust – it’s literally impossible. I would be dishonest to say that, but we now have the growing, developing trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia,” he said.
Though not personally present for most negotiations, Ibrahim argued that Trump was the decisive factor in finally progressing a peace agreement.
“I think both sides, both sides worked very effectively and very honestly,” he said, referring to Azerbaijan and Armenia. “But in order to have peace deals to finalize, you need a global leader who can step up, who can help. And then, literally, six months ago, after the election of President Trump, there was a global leader who wanted to bring peace.”
The White House and State Department were “directly” involved in negotiations, Ibrahim said, but Trump’s true effect didn’t require him to be personally present during every stage of negotiations.
“He’s president of the United States. He has a global agenda. He cannot spend every minute on one single issue. He was a visionary. He was a strategic chief, if I may put it this way, and he was a pusher for that. So again, it’s not for global leaders, for presidents, to go into every detail of the issue, but he was the driving force, and he made it happen,” he said.
While met with near universal celebration in Azerbaijan, the reception of the deal among Armenians, and especially Armenian Americans, has been decidedly mixed. Armenian Americans are often more hardline than their counterparts, with several diaspora advocacy groups leading the charge in denouncing the deal.
“The same Donald Trump that failed to stop Azerbaijan’s 2020 attack on Nagorno Karabakh is now rewarding this aggression, compromising Armenia’s sovereignty, and consolidating Azerbaijan’s genocidal ethnic cleansing of over 150,000 indigenous Armenian Christians,” Armenian National Committee of America Executive Director Aram Hamparian said in a statement.
“A true and lasting peace requires justice — the right of return for displaced Armenians, the release of hostages, protection for Christian heritage sites, and the withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces from Armenia — none of which are addressed in this agreement,” he added.
The right of return of Armenian refugees is a complicated subject, as Baku insists such a right already exists. Ibrahim said that in international relations, there must always be reciprocity, and Armenia doesn’t allow any Azerbaijani refugees expelled in the 1980s and 1990s to return.
“We do believe that every person has a right to go back wherever they want, but everything should be legal. And actually, for those Armenians who left Azerbaijan, the government of Azerbaijan immediately, immediately created the avenue, a special portal through which they can legally request coming back. But the same conditions do not exist for Azerbaijanis who left Armenia, where they had property and many other things,” he said.
As for the return of the so-called Republic of Artsakh leaders, Baku views this as a nonstarter. The 23 imprisoned Armenians, viewed by Armenians as wrongly held political prisoners, are viewed as terrorists and war criminals who must stand trial.
“As far as the Armenians on trial in Azerbaijan are concerned, it’s not just that we want to have a trial for somebody. It’s the … obligation of every state, if there are claims of some wrongdoings, and especially their grave things which one side believes has happened,” Ibrahim said. “There should be a legal process, and the process is legal, it’s not political, it’s not anything else. So everybody has the right to defend himself or herself. But at the end of the day, law is law. It should be equal to everybody; Azerbaijanis, Armenians, domestically, internally, or internationally.”
Though viewed as a positive development, Azerbaijan has one major issue left to resolve, which is arguably the most difficult to overcome. Armenia’s constitution references Nagorno-Karabakh, something Baku views as intolerable.
“We have always been very straightforward and open with our Armenian counterparts. We all understand in the relations between two countries, if one has territorial claims against another, you can have a million agreements, you can have 10,000 treaties, that will not work. So the only impediment remaining is the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, which has territorial claims against Azerbaijan,” Ibrahim said.
“So we hope that in a very short period of time, that provision is changed in Armenia, then we can happily sign the final peace agreement,” he added.
While relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been characterized by extreme vitriol for over 30 years, Ibrahim expressed optimism that relations post-Washington could turn a new leaf. He pointed to the example of Germany and France after World War II.
“Who could have been in a much more difficult situation than Germany and France? What they managed to do through cooperation … to start European integration, first between these two countries. Tell me where the European Union is today, where Germany is today, where France is today. So why not have the same in the Caucasus?”
He noted that the “work has already started,” noting the first direct phone call between Armenia and Azerbaijan’s foreign ministers.
