How long-term is this project? Experts caution that trading gas is different from selling vegetables, branded clothing, or niche perfumes; there are no “trial batches” or “let’s take a risk and see how it goes” approaches. Gas must be contracted even before it is extracted, and Baku has repeatedly emphasized that they will increase production only under long-term contracts. Thus, opening a new export direction presents not only new opportunities but also numerous technical and political challenges that need to be addressed.
Given the sensitivity of the topic, speculations, misconceptions, and attempts to turn everything upside down were perhaps to be expected. Yet, in their fantasies, some Western media have outdone themselves: according to them, Azerbaijan is the initiator of the entire operation, which supposedly benefits only the Kremlin.
Let’s set aside the ironic questions of how this transit could benefit the Kremlin if it involves replacing Russian gas. Moreover, Azerbaijan has no need to engage in risky political maneuvers to find buyers for its gas: the popularity of Azerbaijani “blue fuel” is already growing, with more and more countries expressing a desire to purchase it.
The fact is, both Ukraine and the European Union have approached Azerbaijan with a request for gas supplies to Ukraine and from there to Central Europe. It is in response to this request that Azerbaijan is now considering transit options.
At the same time, Ukraine and some EU countries find themselves in a very vulnerable position. The principle of pacta sunt servanda — “agreements must be kept” — often falters in politics but is taken more seriously in economics. One way or another, in 2019, Russia agreed to transit its gas through Ukraine to Central European countries. This gas continues to flow despite ongoing hostilities. However, this agreement expires next year, and neither Kyiv nor Brussels wishes to extend it under the current circumstances.
Theoretically, gas to Europe is supplied by Azerbaijan, North African countries, and Norway, with additional liquefied gas shipments from the USA and Qatar. But the issue boils down to infrastructure: pipelines, gas storage facilities, and compressor stations.
Not all countries have access to the sea, pipelines from marine terminals to their territory, and, as in Ukraine’s case, the sea can be a conflict zone. Building new infrastructure is both time-consuming and expensive.
Some countries find themselves particularly vulnerable. First and foremost is Ukraine, where the energy infrastructure has been severely damaged by Russian missile and bomb strikes. Austria and Slovakia, traditionally large purchasers of Russian gas via Ukraine, also risk running out of gas. In this context, Ukraine and the EU have requested Azerbaijani gas supplies through Ukraine and onward to Europe, as oil and gas were supplied during the Soviet era.
Azerbaijan has responded to this request, and technical details, including the use of Ukrainian gas storage facilities, are currently being discussed.
For those keen on political conspiracies, we can only advise: don’t try to catch a black cat, so to speak, in an Azerbaijani gas pipeline. It simply isn’t there. There’s just the desire to sell gas as an export resource and not let consumers down. Unlike many, Azerbaijan prefers not to mix gas with politics.
