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Aze.Media > Opinion > Baku shifts the balance of power: What’s next for the OSCE?
Opinion

Baku shifts the balance of power: What’s next for the OSCE?

Azerbaijan was the final stop of the OSCE Secretary General’s South Caucasus tour. Azerbaijan became an OSCE (then CSCE) member on January 30, 1992, marking the start of its participation in European security structures.

AzeMedia
By AzeMedia Published April 28, 2025 9 Min Read
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Last week, OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu visited Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. The purpose of the trip was to assess the prospects for cooperation between the OSCE and the three South Caucasus countries during this challenging period, when the region stands on the threshold of a new phase of development but also faces risks and threats arising from global tensions.

Sinirlioğlu began his South Caucasus tour in Armenia, where he met with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. During the discussions, the parties addressed the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the prospects for peacebuilding in the region.

However, the official information did not mention whether the parties discussed the fate of the OSCE Minsk Group, which Azerbaijan insists should be dissolved. Instead, it was stated that “in the context of unblocking regional communications, the enormous potential of the South Caucasus as a unique crossroads and the urgent need to utilize its transit opportunities were emphasized.” In other words, the Armenian side preferred to focus on the issue of unblocking transport links in the region and the OSCE’s support for opening Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. It was also reported that Ararat Mirzoyan and Feridun Sinirlioğlu exchanged views on the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey.

Following his visit to Armenia, the OSCE Secretary General visited Georgia, a country that actively engages with the OSCE, especially within the framework of the Geneva International Discussions on the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. During his visit to Tbilisi, Sinirlioğlu emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the region and the OSCE’s readiness to contribute to Georgia’s security.

However, external forces seeking to pressure the Georgian leadership for refusing to follow the European Union’s and certain European countries’ recommendations regarding domestic political issues are trying to use OSCE mechanisms for their purposes, complicating the dialogue between Georgia and the organization. For instance, at the beginning of 2025, 38 OSCE countries activated the Vienna Mechanism regarding Georgia, expressing concern over the detention of peaceful protesters and pressure on the media. Additionally, plans for the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly President Pia Kauma’s visit to Tbilisi sparked criticism from the opposition and former President Salome Zurabishvili, leading to its postponement.

Azerbaijan was the final stop of the OSCE Secretary General’s South Caucasus tour. Azerbaijan became an OSCE (then CSCE) member on January 30, 1992, marking the start of its participation in European security structures. Since then, the country has actively engaged with the organization, particularly concerning the settlement of the Karabakh conflict through the OSCE Minsk Group. However, over the years, it became clear that attempts to resolve the conflict solely through peaceful means within the OSCE framework—and especially through the Minsk Group—were futile, with the group’s activities merely delaying the resolution. After the 44-day war and Armenia’s de facto defeat, Baku declared that the Minsk Group had lost its relevance and now emphasizes bilateral negotiations with Armenia. Azerbaijan also demands the dissolution of the Minsk Group as a condition for signing a peace treaty with Armenia. This issue remains a central topic in discussions with the OSCE leadership.

It is worth noting that Azerbaijan’s engagement with the OSCE is occasionally complicated by forces taking anti-Azerbaijani stances and using the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA) as a means of pressuring Baku. This tension manifests in diplomatic conflicts, criticism of electoral processes, and restrictions imposed on OSCE international observers.

Specifically, in February 2024, Azerbaijan denied entry to Swiss politician Nick Gugger, who was part of an OSCE observation mission. Gugger had previously taken an openly pro-Armenian stance, promoting Armenian narratives regarding the final settlement of the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict.

Moreover, in November 2023, the Azerbaijani delegation declined to participate in the OSCE PA autumn session held in Yerevan. The decision was based on concerns over a hostile atmosphere and anti-Azerbaijani propaganda in Armenia. In an official letter, the delegation protested an incident involving disrespect toward the Azerbaijani flag during an international sports event and the subsequent glorification of the perpetrator as a “national hero” in Armenia.

Despite these challenges, Azerbaijan continues to cooperate with the OSCE in several areas, including security and demining efforts.

In May 2023, Baku hosted a joint conference of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and Azerbaijan’s Milli Majlis, focused on sustainable economic growth and regional interconnectedness. Additionally, in February 2025, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov discussed prospects for cooperation with OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu, including issues of regional security and the peace process with Armenia.

During his meeting with Feridun Sinirlioğlu, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev—unlike the Armenian Prime Minister—stressed that the time had long come to dismantle the OSCE Minsk Group and all associated institutions, which had completely failed to resolve the former Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Ilham Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan had fully ensured its territorial integrity and sovereignty through military and political means, thereby upholding the norms and principles of the Helsinki Final Act and international law in the South Caucasus. Thus, a new chapter in relations between Baku and the OSCE is beginning, with conflict resolution topics giving way to discussions about cooperation in other areas.

Whether a definitive line will be drawn under the past and how well Baku’s message will be heard by the OSCE leadership will become clear in the coming months. Likewise, the results of the South Caucasus tour will only be fully assessed after some time has passed.

Ilgar Velizade

Translated from minval.az

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