Meeting with residents of border villages in the Tavush region, he said that if Yerevan does not compromise with Baku on the issue of border villages-exclaves from Soviet times, war could break out, possibly by the end of the week. Is N. Pashinyan trying to preemptively act in case the situation at the border really escalates, or is he simply scaring his own population?
To comment on these statements, Minval.az asked political scientist Farhad Mammadov.
Does Pashinyan truly believe that Azerbaijan is ready to start a new war for these villages, or did he use this trick during the meeting with residents of the exclave villages to whitewash himself?
Pashinyan’s statement indeed made a lot of noise. I understand that the Armenian population simply does not understand other arguments. And this is generally Pashinyan’s method. He has always spoken in this way. Before the 44-day war, during those military actions, and after the end of that war, he offered all options. That’s usually how he proceeds, he raises an issue and then asks the parliament, the population, etc., about what exactly they are ready for. Then he does what they say and, after it does not work out, he turns to them again and says that he warned them at the time. At this stage, specifically regarding these villages, he used the approach of intimidating with war, first, because he sees very well that they do not understand any other language, that is, he admits the fact that it is simply impossible to communicate with them otherwise, and secondly, if something happens on the conditional border tomorrow, he can always refer to the fact that he warned the population of this region.
Can the statement of the Armenian Prime Minister be considered a political move aimed at dragging out time, to fully arm with the help of the West and India, and in the future, to refuse Azerbaijan the transfer of the exclaves?
It seems to me that he can buy time on other tracks, but now there is a clear demonstration that it is on this section of the conditional border that he wants to achieve a result. And he understands very well that the informational noise created around the support of the West does not correspond to reality. Yes, practical steps are being taken with weapons supplies and political support, but at the hour X, when they will directly need this help, he will not be able to obtain it. Therefore, resolving the issues of border villages and exclave territories, or bringing the process into the framework of the commission’s work on delimitation and demarcation, reduces the risk of legitimate tension on the conditional border between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Are there similar examples of the transfer or exchange of territories in international practice?
Here we need to differentiate the issue. These four villages are not Azerbaijani exclaves. These are border villages that were occupied by the Armenian side. Regarding the Azerbaijani exclaves in Armenia and the Armenian exclave in Azerbaijan, this is indeed the subject of negotiations, as the Azerbaijani side has stated clearly, making it understood that this is indeed a subject of negotiations, and exchange as a result of them is fundamentally possible.
