The meeting between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia — Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin — held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, was under close scrutiny from the media, political circles, and the general public. Everyone was interested in one question: would Putin apologize to his Azerbaijani counterpart, and how would the tension between the two sides evolve?
The main and first topic of the talks, raised at the initiative of the Russian president, was the crash of the Azerbaijani passenger plane in December 2024.
Farhad Mammadov, head of the Center for South Caucasus Studies and political analyst, gave an interview to Minval Politika, outlining prospects for the normalization of Azerbaijani-Russian relations in light of recent events.
— How do you assess the talks between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Russia in Dushanbe overall? What impressions did you have?
— Attention should be paid to the format of the meeting. As Mr. Ushakov (Yuri Ushakov, aide to the President of Russia) noted, the talks were conducted with the participation of presidential aides who stayed in constant contact with both heads of state. This means that every detail of the meeting was coordinated in advance.
For example, in China, Putin received everyone at the Russian Embassy, effectively acting as the host. In this case, the meeting was held in the residence of the President of Tajikistan — in the room where Emomali Rahmon receives his guests. Previously, he had met there with President Putin, and the setting remained the same.
Moreover, both leaders entered the room together — an important symbolic detail, as it showed that neither side was the host and that the meeting took place by mutual agreement.
President Putin began the discussion with the topic of the plane crash — a clear response to Azerbaijan’s request. Since the crisis in relations began with the crash, the normalization of ties had to start with that issue as well.
— Did Azerbaijan’s expectations from the meeting materialize?
— Azerbaijan’s main expectations were met. President Putin articulated a position that aligns with Azerbaijan’s perspective and demonstrated that appropriate steps will be taken in the near future. We can assume this might happen before December, when the final report on the crash is expected to be released in accordance with the rules of the Interstate Aviation Committee.
— How do you think relations between Baku and Moscow will develop further?
— There are traditional aspects of the relationship that have also suffered erosion. The economic component — to a lesser extent, but still — will need some work. The second aspect is the humanitarian sphere.
For instance, there is already information that the executive director of Sputnik Azerbaijan (Igor Kartavykh) and an Azerbaijani citizen arrested in Russia (former director of the Satire Theater Mamedali Agayev) have been released. In addition, the issue concerning the family of Shahin Shikhli, former head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in the Urals, remains a humanitarian priority within the broader context of the crisis.
We will see how humanitarian cooperation and political dialogue at various levels are restored. Baku will closely monitor Russia’s actions to ensure they correspond to what President Putin promised during his meeting with Aliyev.
— What kind of reaction do you expect from the West to yesterday’s talks?
— Azerbaijan has never exploited this crisis in its relations with the West. When the United States, the United Kingdom, and the EU offered to help investigate the crash, Azerbaijan declined — so as not to internationalize the issue or allow the tragedy of the Azerbaijani passenger plane to be used by the West against Russia.
Azerbaijan sought to resolve the matter independently, and now we are on the verge of a fair resolution to this tragedy.
I believe that during this period, the Western stereotype of a supposed Russia–Azerbaijan tandem has been completely dismantled. A new perception has formed: Azerbaijan as an independent actor capable of defending its national interests not only vis-à-vis the West but also in relations with Russia.
— Will this affect the implementation of the “Trump Route”?
— Regarding the “Trump Route,” I would look at it more broadly. After the Washington meeting, new horizons have opened — roughly within a timeframe of 1.5 to 2 years — during which the South Caucasus region will undergo significant transformation.
This includes peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Armenian-Turkish normalization, and the opening of communications. During this foundational phase of transformation, Russia’s position in the region was notably weak, with a crisis in its relations with Azerbaijan, while Armenian-Azerbaijani relations developed along separate tracks.
— Why did Putin remain silent for so long, and why did he decide to speak now?
— For Russia, it is important to take into account the realities that are emerging both without its participation and around it. New regional dynamics are forming, and Russia must find its place and role within them. In this sense, the overall process has also influenced the decision to hold this meeting and Moscow’s acceptance of Azerbaijan’s fair expectations.
