Azerbaijan is strengthening its status as a key regional player, acting not only as the dominant power in the South Caucasus but also as a major transit hub opening the route toward Central Asia.
The recent First Azerbaijan–US Analytical Forum, organized in Baku by the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), became a vivid confirmation of the country’s growing role on the international stage. The event brought together representatives of Azerbaijani and American think tanks — including the Atlantic Council, Hudson Institute, and The National Interest — to discuss strategic partnership and ways to deepen bilateral dialogue.
In an interview with the newspaper Bakinsky Rabochy, Farid Shafiyev, Chairman of the Board of the AIR Center and the forum’s Azerbaijani organizer, shared his assessment of the event and the prospects of Azerbaijan–US relations.
— Azerbaijan and the United States have maintained close relations for many years, yet the First Azerbaijan–US Analytical Forum was held only now. Why wasn’t it organized earlier?
— It should be noted that this is far from the first meeting of our experts: they actively interacted on other international platforms, exchanged analytical materials, and developed recommendations for government structures. Nevertheless, the current forum acquires special significance, as it lays the foundation for a permanent platform for annual meetings, which will make it possible to strengthen bilateral cooperation systematically. Whereas earlier the emphasis was placed mainly on politics and energy, now the focus has shifted to the comprehensive development of bilateral relations, including the economy, technology, public diplomacy, and expert exchange.
As for the question of why such forums were not held earlier, one can say that it was necessary to reach this point from the standpoint of institutional development. The absence of an analytical forum earlier did not mean weak ties between American and Azerbaijani analytical centers: cooperation was active even during the Clinton and Bush administrations. At the same time, the think-tank sector in Azerbaijan developed slowly in the 1990s and early 2000s — the Center for Strategic Studies was created only in 2005. After institutionalization at the national level, there arose a need for regular interaction with American colleagues, exchange of experience, and practical developments. This was prompted by the crisis in bilateral relations in 2023, while cooperation was boosted by the meeting in Washington on August 8, which opened a new chapter in US–Azerbaijan dialogue and laid a solid foundation for further strategic partnership.
— How important is this forum by itself?
— Public diplomacy is gaining increasing importance today. Undoubtedly, strategic decisions are made at the level of heads of state, but their implementation directly depends on the work of the expert community and the activity of the media. It is often at meetings of analysts that ideas and initiatives emerge which later become the basis for the actions of politicians at the official level. As a result of such meetings, detailed reports and recommendations are formed and sent to the relevant government structures, on the basis of which practical decisions are made. This process is especially important from the perspective of the Western community, where academic and expert circles traditionally play a key role. It is worth recalling that many prominent US statesmen began their careers precisely in academic and analytical institutes.
— How can American experience in the work of analytical centers be useful for Azerbaijan’s expert community?
— It is worth noting that the tradition of creating analytical centers originated more than a hundred years ago, after World War I, in the United States and the United Kingdom. It was there that organizations emerged that later became world-famous: the Carnegie Endowment, Chatham House, the Council on Foreign Relations, and others. They accumulated unique experience in preparing analytical reports, effectively collecting information, presenting research to government institutions, interacting with international partners, and conducting field studies. Over decades, this process has developed deeply and become a benchmark for think-tank work worldwide.
At the same time, I must emphasize that Azerbaijan also already has certain achievements in this field. Our analytical products are in demand, including by the American side. For example, the AIR Center prepared a report on the state of bilateral relations specifically for the recent conference; it was published in October and was used as a starting point for discussions.
— Does the US administration plan to hold presidential-level meetings in the C6+1 format?
— It is unlikely that such meetings can be organized in the coming months. Most likely, the first meeting in the new format will take place next year, beginning at the level of foreign ministers and then, with successful development of the dialogue, moving to the level of heads of state. It is important to emphasize that the idea of the C6+1 format is actively discussed in leading American analytical centers, and recommendations are already being developed at the expert level which over time find practical implementation. Thus, analytical work and the preparation of expert proposals lay the foundation for subsequent official decisions and high-level strategic steps.
— In your view, what is the interest of the United States in the South Caucasus region?
— Based on the concept of the Trump administration, where the main priority is US national interests, economic motives dominate in the region. And this suits not only the Americans but also us. However, effective economic interaction requires peace — this is the foundation of any commercial and strategic projects. Without a stable environment, economic cooperation is impossible.
In this context, three key directions can be highlighted:
Normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. One of the most important documents contributing to this — the peace treaty — was initialed precisely in Washington;
Strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and the United States. Here, there are prospects both in the oil and gas sector — as confirmed by the agreement with ExxonMobil — and in more promising areas of the non-oil economy, including information technology, artificial intelligence, and innovative industries;
A regional cooperation platform. With successful implementation of the first two directions, it becomes possible to form a platform for interaction between the entire South Caucasus and the United States.
American presence in the region is already felt, and it is now particularly active in the context of strengthening ties with the Central Asian countries, the route to which passes through the South Caucasus.
— How can Azerbaijan use the US transactional strategy in the region to its advantage?
— The transactional strategy undoubtedly has both advantages and limitations. Speaking of the downsides, it is worth noting President Ilham Aliyev’s words: when Azerbaijan was needed by the United States, relations developed actively, and in periods of lower demand, they cooled. This illustrates the nature of the transactional approach, based on specific interests rather than stable strategic ties.
At the same time, historical experience shows that with a far-sighted and consistent policy, American leaders could strive for stable relations with official Baku. After all, our country is an important geopolitical hub: the dominant power in the South Caucasus and a key transit hub for accessing Central Asian markets. This status makes Azerbaijan a strategically significant partner, meaning that conditions for dialogue and building mutually beneficial agreements always exist.
Among the advantages of the transactional strategy is the presence of long-term interests that allow Baku to use current US initiatives to its advantage. Today the American side invites Azerbaijan to participate in peacekeeping operations previously carried out in Afghanistan and Iraq, and now including the Middle East. Under these circumstances, Azerbaijan has the opportunity to put forward counter-demands, for example regarding the complete repeal of Section 907, which opens new horizons for bilateral cooperation.
The philosophy of transactional relations is primarily economic. American technologies remain among the most advanced in the world, despite current economic difficulties. For Azerbaijan, access to these technologies is critically important, especially for the development of the non-oil sector of the economy — including information technology, artificial intelligence, innovative solutions in industry and energy. Thus, competent use of transactional strategy allows the country to simultaneously strengthen its foreign-policy positions and accelerate economic modernization, turning emerging challenges into real opportunities.
