Many assessments suggested that it could mark the beginning of a new regional system of relations—one that establishes a lasting balance of power and interests. Notably, this balance is expected to be shaped primarily by the participants themselves.
If the negotiation process intensifies and leads to concrete decisions, the geopolitical landscape of the region will undergo radical changes, determining the future of its countries. What stands out is not only the synchronicity of the statements by the foreign ministries of Azerbaijan and Armenia following the meeting but also their near-identical content. This sends a message that Baku and Yerevan are not only willing but also capable of making joint decisions.
Following the talks, a meeting between the national commissions on border delimitation and demarcation is expected. It is believed that concrete decisions will soon be made regarding new segments of the still-undefined Azerbaijan–Armenia state border.
The regional context must also be considered. President Ilham Aliyev’s meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took place shortly after the Armenian leader’s visit to Istanbul and his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who expressed support for the peace process between the two countries.
During that visit, prospects for unblocking regional communication routes were discussed. Pashinyan may have also spoken with Erdoğan about specific proposals—possibly the same ones that were central to the discussions in Abu Dhabi. While the content of those proposals remains speculative, the fact that Pashinyan is discussing them with both Erdoğan and Aliyev suggests a growing conviction within Armenia’s political leadership that deals must be struck primarily with its neighbors, rather than seeking support from outside actors. Especially since recent experience shows that such external support is unlikely to materialize—or to serve Armenia’s interests. Even Pashinyan himself, in referring to a “real Armenia,” has been advocating for peaceful coexistence with neighboring states.
Both Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have repeatedly stated publicly that under certain conditions, Yerevan could benefit from the opening of the Zangezur Corridor and the broader unblocking of regional transport routes. This indicates that both Baku and Ankara are signaling their willingness to consider Armenia a partner in implementing the Zangezur Corridor concept—provided that Azerbaijan is granted unobstructed access to its Nakhchivan exclave.
As for transit goods, the increasing volume of freight moving through this corridor would bring Armenia substantial revenue. But even more importantly—from a regional security perspective—it would make Armenia a stakeholder in a new regional transport project upon which its future may depend. Conversely, any attempt to reverse course could prove extremely costly for Yerevan, potentially leading to a complete loss of its political agency.
The confidence-building measures now expected from both sides must be reinforced by concrete actions. Azerbaijan anticipates decisive steps from Armenia, including changes to the irredentist provisions in its constitution. There is also hope that the ongoing process of societal renewal in Armenia, alongside a reassessment of past mistakes, will permanently close the door to revanchist forces seeking a return to power. Expectations also relate to resolving the fate of Western Azerbaijanis.
Importantly, dialogue between the Western Azerbaijani community and representatives of the Armenian authorities could serve as a clear marker of real change. There is hope that the course of history itself will push Yerevan toward action in this direction—since, fundamentally, no other path remains. The destructive road embarked upon in 1987, which led to a long series of tragedies, has demonstrably brought Armenia nowhere.
Ilgar Velizade
