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Aze.Media > Opinion > Iran: provocations out of fear
Opinion

Iran: provocations out of fear

The Iranian "mullocracy" has once again lost its grip. On December 29, near the end of the year, a religious-political ceremony took place in Ardabil, a city in Iranian Azerbaijan.

AzeMedia
By AzeMedia Published January 2, 2025 1.3k Views 7 Min Read
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The event, attended by Ayatollah Seyyed Hassan Ameli, the representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader, was broadcast on Iranian television. During the ceremony, offensive remarks were made about Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Azerbaijan’s official response was swift. Seyyed Jafar Agayi Maryan, Iran’s chargé d’affaires in Azerbaijan, was summoned to the Foreign Ministry, as reported by Minval. Azerbaijan expressed strong protest against the incident and demanded an end to such provocations.

Ayatollah Ameli is no stranger to such games. In one of his sermons, he advised Azerbaijan not to “play with the lion’s tail,” implying that Iran is the lion. Whether Ameli is familiar with the saying, “If Iran is a lion, its head is Azerbaijan,” is unclear. But it is worth noting that clerics in Iran wield considerable power, extending far beyond mosque walls. Ayatollah Ameli, as the representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in Ardabil, is far from a private individual. His statements, therefore, raise the question: are these Tehran’s official views?

Every time there seems to be a thaw in relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, figures like Ameli, Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mehdi Sobkhani, or others are brought to the fore. This kind of inconsistency—where the right hand doesn’t know what the left is doing—might have been understandable in the chaotic months following the anti-Shah revolution. But 45 years later, it reflects something entirely different: a glaring example of Iranian duplicity and hypocrisy.

Iran’s leadership appears deeply troubled by the growing popularity of President Ilham Aliyev in the region, particularly in South Azerbaijan. Before 2020, Iran could look down on Azerbaijan for not fully controlling its territory while maintaining close ties with Armenia. Today, the view from the southern bank of the Araz River is very different. Iranians watched closely as Azerbaijan expelled occupiers from the northern bank, noting the weapons used and the discipline of the Azerbaijani army. Moreover, Azerbaijan’s secular statehood is an inconvenient example for Iran’s clerics, especially against the backdrop of recent protests.

Recent events, such as global media coverage of Azerbaijan’s reaction to the downing of its plane over Grozny, have further underscored the nation’s growing stature. Azerbaijan has matured into a strong, influential state that demands respect. Baku has consistently sought friendly, neighborly relations, leaving Tehran no excuse for its behavior. Religious-political ceremonies like the one in Ardabil, organized by state agencies and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), carry a clear message: intimidation and assertion of dominance. However, Tehran seems to have confused its own house with someone else’s, displaying an outdated and unrealistic perspective.

Diplomatic relations exist precisely to resolve issues between nations. Yet Iran resorts to medieval-style sermons in mosques, making veiled threats. These ceremonies, known in Azerbaijani as mərsiyə, often devolve into rants filled with curses and insults.

Let’s be clear: real strength lies in nations capable of influencing their neighbors cautiously and constructively. Iran, despite its bravado, struggles to meet this standard. For example, following the assassination of IRGC General Qasem Soleimani by U.S. forces, Iran staged a “festival of threats” and vowed revenge against the “Great Satan” (as the U.S. is referred to in Tehran). Yet, its response—a single missile strike on a U.S. base in Iraq—was lackluster. Similarly, Iran’s influence in Syria collapsed alongside the Assad regime, with Tehran unable to prevent its expulsion from Syria.

In Lebanon, Israel dismantled Hezbollah’s leadership, Iran’s most valuable proxy. Even after Israeli troops entered Lebanon, Iran’s response was limited to empty threats. Today, Iranian proxies in Yemen are under attack, yet Tehran remains powerless to respond meaningfully.

Against this backdrop, Ameli’s threats to Azerbaijan are laughable. If Iran is so bold, let it respond to Israel or the U.S. Instead, Iran resorts to theatrical ceremonies, as it lacks the capability to exert meaningful power elsewhere.

The attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran two years ago further highlights Iran’s duplicity. One Azerbaijani diplomat was killed, and two were seriously injured. Despite Iran’s promises of swift justice, the perpetrator remains unpunished. Such inaction reflects poorly on Iran’s credibility, contrasting sharply with Azerbaijan’s commitment to its promises.

Iran’s leadership must understand that threats and insults will not alter Azerbaijan’s policies. The nation has its own tools of power and has demonstrated its resolve against threatening Iranian military exercises near its borders. Tehran, living in a “glass house,” would do well to avoid throwing stones—lest it finds itself once again retreating in humiliation.

Nurani

Translated from minval.az

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