The U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus is unlikely to undergo significant changes regardless of the U.S. presidential election outcome, according to Azerbaijani Milli Majlis deputy and political analyst Rasim Musabayov in an interview with Minval.az.
“I don’t believe that U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus will radically shift depending on who wins the election. Over the past 30 years, U.S. policy in this region has remained largely consistent, with only minor nuances and changes in emphasis. This consistency has included strong American support for Georgia and Armenia—politically, financially, and more recently, militarily,” he stated.
Regarding Azerbaijan, Musabayov noted that the U.S.’s main interest has been in energy projects and “ensuring that Azerbaijan, somewhat caught between Russia to the north and Iran to the south, can maintain political stability and independence.”
“I believe this approach will continue, although with Azerbaijan’s decreasing hydrocarbon resources and the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli and Shah Deniz fields having been developed for over a quarter-century, American companies’ interest in our hydrocarbon resources has declined. However, Azerbaijan’s strategic significance remains the most crucial factor for the U.S., as the so-called Middle Corridor passes through Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan also plays a pivotal role in the planned North-South project,” Musabayov added.
On Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization, the political analyst noted that the process is nearly complete, both militarily and politically.
“Therefore, I don’t expect much activity from the U.S., especially considering a potential change in the White House administration. The difference would be that a Democratic administration has been more involved in this settlement and more closely tied to Armenian lobbying organizations, as well as supporting Nikol Pashinyan and his government. A Trump administration, however, would largely distance itself from these matters, despite Trump’s recent pro-Armenian statements and his call to the Armenian Catholicos in Lebanon. I suspect that half an hour after the call, he likely forgot about the Catholicos’s existence. The topic of Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization simply doesn’t interest him,” Musabayov asserted.
He further noted that there are no legal grounds or leverage to pressure Baku.
“Given that Azerbaijan’s geopolitical significance hasn’t changed, worsening relations to pressure Azerbaijan into fulfilling specific American or Armenian desires is not feasible.
So, I don’t foresee any radical changes or deterioration in relations with Azerbaijan. A Republican administration would likely focus on American issues, China, and trade-related matters, leaving less time to interfere in the South Caucasus. For Azerbaijan, this would be preferable to the Democrats, who tend to lecture others globally,” Musabayov said.
Commenting on Armenian support for U.S. presidential candidates, the political analyst mentioned that Armenian organizations in the U.S. haven’t publicly endorsed any candidate, though in Yerevan, they openly express a preference for Kamala Harris, given her ties to California, where Armenian voters and lobbyists hold significant influence.
“Azerbaijan is far less affected by shifting international conditions, as it has a solid financial foundation, a security system, and is backed by alliances with Turkey and other strategic partners. Thus, Baku will be able to safeguard its national interests regardless of the U.S. election outcome,” Musabayov concluded.
