Strictly speaking, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili also participated in the meeting. He, too, had a lot to say: about the “Saakashvili case” and about the August 2008 war, for which no sanctions were imposed against Russia, and about many other things. But for understandable reasons it was the exchange of views on the subject of post-conflict settlement that was in the center of attention of Azerbaijani audience.
Media and Telegram channels, including Minval.az, promptly began to quote the most vivid and harsh statements of the President of Azerbaijan, especially those where the head of the state shattered fakes about the mythical “blockade” of Khankendi, reminded that Azerbaijan had won the war and that the international community accepted the post-war realities of the region. It is important to see the proverbial forest for the trees of this breaking news coverage: the “tectonic shifts”, if you will, in the post-war negotiation process, where Azerbaijan is confidently “playing white”. Moreover, no matter how stubborn and cranky Yerevan may be, Armenia has to retreat in the diplomatic arena, even if it does not look as spectacular and obvious as on the battlefield. It is not only the fact that during the discussion Ilham Aliyev asked to respect the Constitution of Azerbaijan and stop using the term “Nagorno-Karabakh”, because there is no such administrative-territorial unit in Azerbaijan, but there is the Karabakh region, where Armenians live.
Finally, the President of Azerbaijan voiced a whole series of policy messages. Azerbaijan clearly and confidently outlined the “negotiating tracks”: the peace negotiations with Armenia, where the delimitation of borders is discussed first and foremost, is separate from the Karabakh Armenians’ rights and security issues, which our country discusses with the Karabakh Armenians themselves: with those born in Karabakh and living there, not with Moscow-exported oligarchs like Ruben Vardanyan. As the head of the state stressed, there will be no mentioning of Karabakh in the future peace treaty.
Another important—and truly sensational—statement by Ilham Aliyev was that Azerbaijan had proposed that Armenia set up checkpoints on its roads: this applies both to Lachin and to the future Zangezur corridor. So far this is only a proposal; according to the President, there has been no response from the Armenian side yet. This proposal seems to have come as a surprise for Yerevan. And it is all the more obvious that Azerbaijan is confidently pursuing its strategy in the region. Our country “plays white”, putting forward its initiatives. And it is not just individual proposals: Azerbaijan is consistently, step by step, implementing its strategy to get the South Caucasus out of the “military conflict” state, and to bring a lasting and stable peace to the region. One that would be kept not by the presence of peacekeepers, observers or anyone else. Moreover, Ilham Aliyev stressed that these initiatives of Azerbaijan find understanding among both the Europeans and the Americans. Clearly, it is not easy for the Armenian leadership to accept all this. For instance, the aforementioned checkpoint on the Lachin road puts an end to all hopes for the special status of the Lachin road itself and the city of Khankendi where it goes.
And, it is clear from what the President of Azerbaijan said that Armenia is forced to retreat under the diplomatic pressure of our country. Commenting on Armenia’s new proposals regarding the peace treaty, the head of state mentioned that there are positive developments there, but it is not enough yet. Translation: Armenia is backing down, and it will be worn down.
This is, apparently, the course of the negotiations behind closed doors, where a trilateral meeting was now organized by the United States. The Minsk Group, Ilham Aliyev recalled, “retired” without achieving anything.
But perhaps the Munich meeting has also revealed another very important aspect. Understandably, it was difficult in the current situation to avoid parallels with the debates of 2020. But it is not so important whether or not Nikol Pashinyan has improved his English and realized that references to Tigran the Great and Arshakid dynasty are not the argument to take to the table at the Munich conference. What is more important is that just like the last time, Nikol Pashinyan did not have a clear and distinct position to articulate. What Armenia intends to do next, how they see the future peace treaty: they still have no answers to these questions. Moreover, in his interview with local journalists, the President of Azerbaijan said that Baku wants Armenia to give up its territorial claims against Azerbaijan, the normalization to happen, and the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border to be carried out on the basis of historical maps, which makes sense in historical terms. He then added: “And what does Armenia want? Baku cannot understand it. Now Armenia says that what is happening on Lachin road has nothing to do with them and they will not comment on it, now they say they will deal with the so-called ‘Nagorno-Karabakh problem’.”
We should add that this is more dangerous than it seems at first glance. In essence, these “negotiation tactics” mean that Armenia is still not ready for a real peace agenda, although Pashinyan received a mandate for peace talks from voters in the elections. It is unlikely that in more than two years Yerevan has not figured out what the “score” of the war was and what is being discussed at the peace talks. If now instead of having a real conversation Pashinyan is trying “to spread fakes” about children who were terrified by “Azerbaijanis in masks”, if he seriously expects to cancel out the issue of the mosques in Karabakh destroyed by Armenian invaders by pointing to the destruction of mosques during Soviet times… it begs the question: what is Armenia hoping to achieve? Are they hoping to drag it out for another 30 years? Do they think that the situation will change overnight in favor of Yerevan? Or do they expect to turn the tables and provoke a new conflict again? Did they not bother to analyze the real balance of power, just as in the fall of 2020?
We would rather be wrong about the latter. But unfortunately, we cannot count on Yerevan to be adequate.
Nurani
Translated from Minval.az
