Judging by the Kremlin’s continued efforts, it seems that behind closed doors, they have decided to push this strange idea with maximum persistence. If we consider Russia’s past assertiveness, Moscow is no stranger to bulldozing its way to achieve its goals, and there’s ample evidence to support this. But if we rely on logic and widely accepted diplomatic norms, we can see no valid motives for Russia’s plan to establish a consulate in Karabakh. The early and much-desired withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Karabakh—an unexpected move for the international community—appears to have been perceived by one of the “Kremlin towers” as a sign of weakness and loss of influence in the South Caucasus. In an attempt to dispel this impression, which undermines Russia’s long-standing role as a regional power broker, Moscow is now contemplating a bold move: opening a consulate in the liberated city of Khankendi.
It’s worth noting that this topic was first mentioned back in May of this year, during a meeting in Moscow between the head of the Azerbaijani Parliament’s Committee on International Relations, Samad Seyidov, and the Chairman of the Russian Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs, Grigory Karasin. At that time, Karasin expressed Russia’s intention to open a consulate in Khankendi by the end of 2024. According to Karasin, this would help “eliminate the disparity in mutual consular representation.”
Currently, Russia’s diplomatic presence in Azerbaijan is limited to its embassy in Baku, with no other consulates in the country. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan maintains three consulates in Russia—located in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Yekaterinburg. However, any comparison between these consular missions or discussions about achieving diplomatic parity are inappropriate, as Azerbaijan’s geographical size and population of Russian citizens—especially in Khankendi or other parts of Karabakh—do not warrant such a presence. It remains unclear whether this is a deliberate provocation or a calculated move aimed at harming Azerbaijani-Russian relations.
Interestingly, revanchist circles in Armenia have begun whispering about reigniting their struggle over Karabakh, which could very well have been part of the Kremlin’s plan. In fact, the mere suggestion of such an initiative and Armenia’s reaction to it strongly indicate an intention to derail the peace process between Baku and Yerevan, especially at a time when Azerbaijan is advocating for a final resolution without outside mediators. Despite Moscow’s recent assurances that peace could be achieved through bilateral negotiations, it seems the Kremlin viewed Baku’s initiative as a softening of its stance, likely to ease Russia’s path toward opening a consulate in Karabakh.
In August, Karasin’s confident rhetoric was slightly tempered by then-Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia, Polad Bulbuloglu, who, in an interview with TASS, stated: “The Russian Federation expressed a desire to open a consulate because Azerbaijan has two general consulates in Russia—in Yekaterinburg and St. Petersburg. Given Russia’s size and the number of Azerbaijanis living there, this is natural. However, in Azerbaijan, the need for consular work is more limited. Nevertheless, discussions are ongoing, and various options are being considered. The issue is still under discussion.”
From his words, it’s clear that “options” are being discussed. Moreover, Bulbuloglu didn’t specify any timelines, regions, or cities where the consulate might open. While it’s premature to draw any conclusions, the activity surrounding this topic is far from reassuring. In its efforts to maintain its presence in a region increasingly influenced by Turkey, Moscow has floated the idea of establishing a consulate.
The latest official to comment on the matter is Alexey Klimov, head of the Consular Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Yesterday, Klimov announced that the issue of opening new Russian diplomatic missions in Azerbaijan, including a possible general consulate in Karabakh, is being considered at a political level.
He also noted that once agreements are reached with Azerbaijan, the Consular Department will proceed with practical steps to implement them.
In this context, Russia might point to Turkey’s plans to open a consulate in Shusha. However, as the saying goes, this makes more sense, given that several Turkish companies are actively involved in reconstruction work in the Karabakh region. By contrast, between Russia and Azerbaijan, a visa-free regime is already in place, and there are no Russian citizens working on restoration projects in the liberated territories.
Eager to strengthen its influence over Azerbaijan, Moscow now seeks to expand its diplomatic presence. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yet to comment on the matter. According to the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, the decision to open a consulate must be made by mutual agreement between the two countries, following established international practices.
Alla Zeydullayeva
Translated from minval.az
