Irish political expert, analyst, and historian Patrick Walsh answered Globalinfo.az’s questions covering the international and foreign policy agenda.
– Mr. Walsh, there has been a new development in the Zangezur Corridor process. It is claimed that the arrival of the U.S. military in the region would bring Armenia under Washington’s full control and eventually push Russia out of the Caucasus. How might Tehran react in such a scenario? Will the so-called “Trump Bridge” (as reported by a Spanish publication – ed.) become a reality?
– I doubt the “Trump Bridge” will materialize unless its core nature is changed and it’s limited to a commercial agreement. Trump has no intention of deploying U.S. military forces to the South Caucasus. That would be a highly marginal move from the perspective of U.S. interests, and Trump wants to cut costs. The main driving forces behind the reduction of Russian influence in the region are Armenia and Azerbaijan themselves. However, Armenia does not want to become a vassal of Washington. That would be economically dangerous due to trade with Russia and the large number of Armenians working there.
As for the Iranians, they would seek to prevent the establishment of a corridor controlled by an American company.
Matthew Bryza recently emphasized that the U.S. has very limited strategic goals in the South Caucasus, and that Trump is only interested in the region from a business perspective. Compared to the pro-Armenian and anti-Russian Biden/Pelosi administration, Trump shows far less interest in the region. He believes the best the U.S. can do is help facilitate the peace process. Trump’s bridge proposal would likely be obstructed by sovereignty concerns on both the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides.
– Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has unveiled a plan of action to remove Catholicos Garegin II, head of the Armenian Apostolic Church. Since 1988, Etchmiadzin has reportedly been the center for planning territorial claims against Azerbaijan, as well as for genocide propaganda and terror campaigns. Furthermore, the so-called genocide narrative against Turkey is also rooted in the Church. Pashinyan seems to understand that without radical reforms in the Church, normalizing relations with Turkey will be impossible. The clergy could also obstruct a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Moreover, the Church is seen as a constant threat to Pashinyan’s power. Therefore, he appears to be working to neutralize Etchmiadzin and replace its leadership with his own allies. Do you think Pashinyan will face resistance?
– The Armenian Church is a major source of stability and influence in Armenia, especially since there is widespread distrust toward Armenian politicians. According to opinion polls, Pashinyan enjoys the highest public support, but that’s still only about 20 percent. He is seen, as the English saying goes, as “the best of a bad bunch.”
Pashinyan is concerned about next year’s elections and sees the Catholicos as a central figure of opposition to his peace agenda and Westernization policy. He is trying to resolve this issue before the elections. He fears the Church more than any politician and hopes to eliminate it as a political force.
– The third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine has ended in Istanbul. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, stated that a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky could only take place if it is well-planned. He said: “We have conveyed to the Ukrainian side that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky must be thoroughly and carefully prepared in advance. Otherwise, such a meeting would be fruitless. That is our only condition. If there are any additional conditions, we will inform the Ukrainian side.” What is your view on this?
– Russia’s aim is simply to resume the Istanbul talks that began in April 2022. However, it wants to force Kyiv to pay a much higher price on territorial matters than was offered to Zelensky at the start of the special military operation. That said, Zelensky is in a difficult situation. It’s reported that both the U.S. and the UK have prepared two former military leaders as potential replacements for him. I don’t see how Zelensky can make concessions to Russia without being replaced.
He is participating in the Istanbul talks primarily to appease Trump, because Trump could sink both him and Ukraine if he chooses to. Ukraine’s military situation remains dire. They lack sufficient manpower and equipment to stop Russian forces. Drone improvisations are somewhat effective in halting Russian concentrations, but overall, the Ukrainians are weakening, and their only hope is advanced Western weaponry.
However, Trump faces the same dilemma as Biden. Biden refrained from escalation, and Trump doesn’t want to escalate either — he wants to hand the war over to Europe. Thus, Zelensky is in a very difficult position, and I see Ukraine continuing to weaken until it agrees to harsh peace terms in the face of Russia’s military power.
Interview by Gulnar Salimova
Translated from Globalinfo.az
