Minval Politika presents an interview with political analyst and Member of the Azerbaijani Milli Majlis (Parliament), Rasim Musabayov, discussing recent developments in the South Caucasus region.
— Iranian Supreme Leader’s adviser on international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, recently stated that the Zangezur Corridor project aims to undermine Iran’s national security and strategic ties. He also accused Azerbaijan of actions “contrary to the interests of Muslim countries,” citing mediation between Syria and Israel and oil exports to Israel. Why do such contradictory statements from Tehran keep surfacing?
— I’m surprised by Mr. Velayati’s statement. I’ve met him — in the early 1990s, he was Iran’s Foreign Minister while I was an adviser to the Azerbaijani president and traveled to Iran for preparations of an Armenian–Azerbaijani meeting with Iran’s participation. Back then, he seemed a pragmatic and rational politician. Now he’s spewing ideological nonsense.
Iran, having suffered painful Israeli strikes on its nuclear program and IRGC leadership, does not dare to openly threaten Azerbaijan or make demands. Instead, they complain in the media or via Pakistan, trying to pressure us. But it’s all in vain — Azerbaijan knows what it’s doing and acts strictly in accordance with its national interests and international law. Iran’s “wishes” can remain just that — wishes.
— Armenia–Russia relations: Pashinyan talks about a possible exit from the CSTO, while staying in the EAEU. He recently visited Altai after rejecting U.S. proposals regarding the Zangezur Corridor. Meanwhile, Russian military equipment is being transferred to its base in Gyumri. What’s happening here? Is Russia planning something? How would you characterize their current relationship?
— Regarding Pashinyan’s trip to Altai and his meeting with Russian PM Mishustin, let me remind you: when he attended the 80th Victory Day celebration in Moscow, he was treated disrespectfully — seated next to Lukashenko (whom he despises), isolated, and denied even a brief greeting with the Chinese president. Putin refused even a short bilateral meeting. That experience left the Armenian government with no desire to engage with Russia.
Given that Mishustin oversees economic matters and Armenia depends heavily on trade with Russia — and Mishustin is one-quarter Armenian — Moscow decided to use him for a final “disciplinary talk.”
They’re telling Pashinyan: wait, let us deal with Ukraine first, then we’ll turn to Azerbaijan. Delay the Zangezur Corridor, peace treaty, and dismantling of the OSCE Minsk Group — we’ll settle it together later. Pashinyan should realize that once the Ukraine conflict ends, he may be the first target. This was an exploratory visit: a last warning. What happens next depends on him.
— Can Azerbaijan’s cooperation with NATO expand amid tensions with Russia? How would the Kremlin respond?
— Azerbaijan isn’t expanding anything with NATO. We participate in the “Partnership for Peace” program, though it’s not very active currently. Our military-political alliance is with Turkey, and that’s what will be strengthened. I believe we should gradually abandon Soviet-era weapons and fully switch to systems produced by Turkey, co-produced with Turkey, or supplied by its Western partners. This transition will take time, but we are moving in that direction. The formula is simple: two states, one nation, one army.
— Minval Politika has published materials with irrefutable evidence implicating Russia in a tragic incident — audio recordings, photos, and soldier reports. Yet Moscow remains silent. No confirmations, no denials, no charges. Why such a stance? What outcome do you expect?
— Russia says it will wait for the final report from ICAO due by the end of the year before taking any action. For now, it’s buying time. But eventually, the matter will have to be discussed directly with Azerbaijan. ICAO procedures require a bilateral attempt to resolve such issues, and such negotiations with Russia will take place. Depending on Moscow’s stance — whether it accepts responsibility or considers the evidence — the next steps will follow.
Either Azerbaijan will go to the Arbitration Court, or — preferably — the issue will be resolved bilaterally without involving legal institutions. In any case, Azerbaijan and its president have no intention of backing down, closing their eyes, or forgetting the tragic incident that killed 38 people.
— Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan are rising. President Ilham Aliyev announced plans to file lawsuits with international courts over the crash. What impact will that have?
— Azerbaijan isn’t seeking confrontation with Russia. But note that Russia is issuing military threats, there’s a witch-hunt against Azerbaijanis, and outright Nazi-style propaganda based on ethnic hostility is being spread, including calls to expel Azerbaijanis from Russia.
Let me remind you: inciting ethnic hatred or advocating military attacks are punishable under Russian criminal law — from heavy fines to prison terms. Yet those making such statements act with impunity, either with official approval or tacit tolerance from authorities.
This is unacceptable between supposed strategic partners. Russia’s actions are destroying the Azerbaijan–Russia strategic partnership.
Azerbaijan doesn’t seek to harm Russia. But if Russia continues down this path, its relations with Azerbaijan will inevitably deteriorate — politically, economically, culturally, and socially.
If that’s Russia’s choice, Azerbaijan will accept it — but it’s not our choice.
We’re accused of urging Ukraine to defend its territorial integrity. But this view is shared globally. Russia is isolated because of its annexationist policies, so these accusations are baseless.
Moreover, if Ukraine had invaded Russia and occupied, say, Krasnodar — which was 80% Ukrainian in the early 20th century — Azerbaijan would have supported Russia in defending its territorial integrity. This is a matter of principle, not an anti-Russian stance. Practically the whole world is now against Russia on this issue.
Claims that Azerbaijan helps Ukraine — through humanitarian aid or energy support — are true. But Russia must understand that Ukraine is also a strategic partner for Azerbaijan. There’s nothing surprising in this.
And hasn’t Russia supported Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani territories all these years? It gave Armenia billions in weapons for free, along with economic and diplomatic backing. During the 2020 Second Karabakh War, Russia even organized an air bridge via the Caspian and Iran to supply Armenia with $1 billion worth of arms and ammunition — all for free.
So now Russia has no moral or political right to accuse Azerbaijan of aiding Ukraine. Ukraine is defending itself from aggression; it didn’t attack Russia. Azerbaijan’s position is legally and morally sound.
