In an interview with Minval.az, Azerbaijani political analyst and member of the Milli Majlis Rasim Musabayov discusses the likelihood of U.S. involvement in a war between Iran and Israel, the feasibility of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and the broader regional implications.
— Many of Iran’s key projects have failed since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. Is this due to Iranian incompetence or Israel’s superior intelligence?
Iran’s geopolitical ambitions — especially its efforts to establish dominance in the Islamic world — have long relied on projecting itself as the main champion of Palestinian rights, taking on the burden of confrontation with Israel. But these are ideological pursuits of Iran’s ruling clerical elite, not necessarily aligned with the country’s national interests. By presenting themselves as leaders of the struggle against Israel, they also seek spiritual leadership of the Islamic world.
Additionally, Iran has pursued a long-standing objective to gain strategic access to the Mediterranean via the so-called Shia Crescent — leveraging influence in Iraq post-Saddam, in Syria through Assad, and in Lebanon via Hezbollah. They thought all that remained was to pressure Israel.
At some point, Tehran miscalculated, nudging Hamas to act against Israel, wrongly assuming that Israel’s internal instability and political unrest would work in their favor. They underestimated Israel’s ability to unite under threat. Hamas faltered, Hezbollah stumbled, Assad’s regime weakened. Meanwhile, Iran’s push for nuclear capability created the conditions for Israel to respond with overwhelming force.
It’s a combination of poor strategic planning by Iran’s clerical regime and the high effectiveness of Israeli intelligence. Whether this will bring a quick end to the conflict remains unclear.
— Will the U.S. eventually get involved in the Iran–Israel war? What might trigger that?
There’s little doubt that the U.S. was aware of Israel’s intent to strike Iran. While the U.S. didn’t directly participate, it is known that Israel has access to real-time intelligence — including data from U.S. satellites — which greatly enhances its operational capacity.
At this stage, I do not expect direct U.S. military involvement, unless Iran targets American naval forces or bases in the Gulf or Iraq. As of now, that seems unlikely.
— Can Israel dismantle Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. help?
Completely dismantling Iran’s nuclear program — even with U.S. support — is virtually impossible without occupying the country. Iran is a vast nation with a large population. Only a full-scale ground invasion could ensure total elimination of the program, which is not feasible.
The goal should be to limit the military dimension of Iran’s nuclear efforts — namely, preventing uranium enrichment beyond 90% weapons-grade levels. This can be pursued through negotiations or, if necessary, sustained military strikes on key infrastructure.
Even if Israel bombs some nuclear facilities, Iran reportedly holds over 400 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium — potentially enough to build a bomb. This is a serious threat. The most rational path forward is diplomatic: reach an agreement that limits and monitors Iran’s nuclear activities.
— A U.S. consulate building in Tel Aviv was damaged by an Iranian missile. Washington’s reaction seemed muted. Why?
Yes, a missile hit the U.S. consulate, but it’s not a casus belli for the U.S. to enter the war alongside Israel. That scenario is unlikely.
— The USS Nimitz is being repositioned toward the Middle East. U.S. tanker aircraft are also on the move. Why now?
The U.S. is increasing its military presence in response to escalating tensions — deploying a third carrier group is a logical step. It serves both as insurance for Israel and as pressure on Iran to return to negotiations.
— Can Trump stop this confrontation?
I’m cautious about making predictions in such conflicts, especially without exclusive information. But it’s clear that Trump had the opportunity to prevent direct military escalation. At some point, he allowed Netanyahu to take on all the risks.
Trump once said — in reference to the Ukraine conflict — that “sometimes it’s useful to let the kids fight it out before making peace.” That’s a dangerously simplistic approach. In real wars, the consequences are catastrophic. Everything possible must be done to prevent or quickly stop armed conflict. I don’t know whether Trump can fulfill that mission, but the world must try — because a broader Middle East conflict, on top of the Russia–Ukraine war and growing tensions over Taiwan, threatens global stability.
— What about provocations aimed at sparking conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan?
It’s clear who’s behind this: Armenian actors and, unfortunately, some in Russia. Their aim is to provoke Iran into hostility toward Azerbaijan. Armenia hopes Iranian aggression would strengthen its own position in the South Caucasus. Some believe this would force Baku to seek help from Moscow.
But such behavior is reckless. If serious conflict were to break out, Armenia would suffer the most. Azerbaijan’s hands would be untied, and Armenia would quickly feel the consequences of such short-sighted tactics.
It’s important to note that these provocations don’t come from Pashinyan himself or his immediate circle, but rather from pro-Russian elements — including figures like Karine Gevorgyan — who are trying to stir hostility between Iran and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is deeply concerned about the Iran–Israel conflict and calls for a swift end to hostilities. It has repeatedly assured Iran that no hostile actions will be launched from Azerbaijani territory. Joint military exercises with Iran were meant to prove this: there is no Israeli infrastructure in Azerbaijan that could be used against Iran.
Fortunately, there are reasonable voices in Iran who do not want to deepen mistrust or fuel hostility. There’s still a chance to preserve stability in the region.
