In a recent analysis for Just Security, Joe Haberman and Paul Cormary of the RAND Corporation, a leading American think tank and a Pentagon contractor for military-strategic modeling, discussed the nuanced stance the United States should adopt towards Armenia amid its shifting foreign policy landscape. The analysts argue that Washington’s approach should be cautious, balancing US interests with those of Armenia, rather than offering unconditional support.
The article highlights Armenia’s disillusionment with Russia following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and subsequent events. This has led Yerevan to question the reliability of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as a security guarantor. The RAND analysts question the strategic importance of the South Caucasus region to the US, noting the significant concern among the Armenian diaspora in the United States, yet acknowledging that a new conflict in the region would contradict US interests, potentially destabilizing the area and disrupting critical energy supplies to Europe.
The authors note that while Armenia has sought to enhance its military capabilities through partnerships with France and India, these efforts alone are insufficient without US assistance. They suggest that the United States could bolster Armenia’s deterrent capabilities through the Foreign Military Sales program, providing short-range air defense systems and TROPHY countermeasure systems to enhance the defense of armored vehicles. Such assistance would complement Armenia’s existing defense capabilities and help counter potential Azerbaijani offensives.
However, the RAND analysts caution against the risk of Western military technology being diverted through Armenia to Russia. They recommend stringent end-use monitoring to prevent unauthorized technology transfer, underscoring the importance of compliance with Western export controls.
While military support is crucial, the analysts emphasize the need for political engagement to prevent new conflicts in the region. They advocate for US collaboration with the European Union to foster dialogue and a potential peace settlement, as well as efforts to normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey to achieve regional stability.
In conclusion, the article argues that while the US and its allies are cautious about offering security guarantees to Armenia, a balanced approach involving both military support and diplomatic engagement could enhance Armenia’s security and contribute to stability in the South Caucasus. The RAND analysts advise Armenia to carefully manage its relationship with Russia, avoiding actions that could provoke a harsh response from Moscow, given Russia’s significant military presence in the country.
