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Home Opinion

Shusha Declaration defines ‘New reality’ in South Caucasus after Qarabagh, Moscow analyst says

It is no surprise that Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders and analysts are suggesting that the Shusha declaration signed today by Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is historic or that Armenian commentators are denouncing it as Turkish interference in the region.

Author: AzeMedia
June 18, 2021
in Opinion
Reading Time: 2 mins read
4d73c2e8f3050d87b7e6d24d4ad022c3

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev were in a celebratory mood. (photo: mod.gov.az)

But what is important is the Moscow observer Sergey Strokan has already acknowledged that the agreement reflects and reifies “the new realities which have emerged in the South Caucasus after the Qarabagh conflict,” realities which Russia and all other countries concerned will have to take into consideration (kommersant.ru/doc/4857331).

And while no one immediately involved is saying so, the Shusha meeting may prove more important historically than the Geneva summit and represent in the Caucasus something similar to if not yet equivalent to the inclusion of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania into the European Union and NATO.

Just as their inclusion in Western institutions changed forever the way in which they and Moscow view and deal with each other, so too Turkey’s affirmation of its role as a guarantor of Azerbaijan’s borders, its willingness to discuss establishing bases in Azerbaijan, and its promotion of the Zengezur corridor by themselves change the situation.

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Moreover, the Shusha declaration reflects Turkey’s drive to lead the Turkic world and sets the stage not only for the expanded projection of Turkic influence and power into Central Asia but also will have a profound impact on Turkey’s influence on the future of Russian-occupied Crimea and on the numerous Turkic peoples within Russian borders.

It is premature to say as did one Russian telegram channel that “Turkey has in fact slammed the door to the Caucasus in front of Russia” (t.me/Wek_ru/9361), but it is reasonable to insist as Baku analysts have that Turkey is becoming the chief guarantor of a new settlement of the conflict there (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/365014/ and kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/364984/).

At the very least, the shift in power relations that the Shusha declaration codifies is going to define the nature of conflicts among both the countries in the region and outside powers like Russia and the West now and in the future, a new reality that all of them will have to take into consideration even if some continue to struggle against it.

Paul Goble

Window on Eurasia

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Aze.Media offers an independent and strategic insight on socio-cultural, political and economic life in Azerbaijan. We are thinkers of diverse disciplines spread across countries working together as one team to provide international audiences with an alternative point of view on Azerbaijani and foreign realities.

Email: editor@aze.media


© 2021 Aze Media International Platform for Alternative Thought.

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