The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed a peace agreement in the White House, brokered by former U.S. President Donald Trump, aimed at ending decades of tensions and conflict—if it holds. Central to the deal is the creation of a lucrative strategic trade route passing through both countries, providing a strong incentive for them to maintain the peace.
This route, previously discussed in this column as the Zangezur Corridor, will be developed by American companies and rebranded as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). It will include railways, communication lines, and oil and gas pipelines.
The corridor’s significance lies in its potential to forge a direct link from Central Asia’s “Stans” through the Caucasus to Turkey and beyond, effectively reviving the ancient Silk Road. Crucially, it bypasses both Russia and Iran—two countries that have long worked to keep Central Asian trade dependent on routes through their territories. Russia, in particular, stands to lose its dominant position over a region it has controlled for over two centuries, loosening Moscow’s geopolitical grip from Turkmenistan to Kyrgyzstan.
From Armenia’s perspective, this geopolitical shift is profound. While the corridor appears to empower the Turkic world, Yerevan has agreed to it largely due to eroding trust in Moscow as a security guarantor. Russia’s failure to protect its allies—whether in Syria, Iran, or, most notably, Armenia itself—has been stark. The 2023 Azerbaijani recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh shocked many Armenians, and subsequent Russian proposals to involve itself in Zangezur were met with skepticism.
By bringing in U.S. participation, Armenia gains a new security partner capable of counterbalancing the pan-Turkic axis while exacting a form of payback against Moscow for past betrayals. For Donald Trump, the project offers leverage in future negotiations with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, a strategic advantage against Iran, and the potential to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative by blocking its access via Iran.
The TRIPP also has implications for Georgia. Currently, Georgia benefits from being a key transit route, including the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline. The Zangezur Corridor could render these routes redundant, dealing a severe blow to Georgia’s economy and its pro-Russian political leadership under billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Former President Mikheil Saakashvili, a pro-Western figure now imprisoned, has warned that Georgia faces “complete geopolitical isolation alongside Iran and Russia,” along with accelerated emigration and deepening poverty.
However, the project is not without risks. An Iranian minister recently threatened that the corridor would become “a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.” Given the scale of the infrastructure involved, the route would be vulnerable to sabotage. Like the Panama and Suez Canals—both of which required long-term Western military protection—the Zangezur Corridor may demand substantial security measures. This raises the question of whether U.S. companies and policymakers are prepared for such commitments, especially as they run counter to Trump’s “America First” pledge to avoid foreign military entanglements.
By Melik Kaylan, originally published in Forbes
