By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
Azemedia new logo
  • Home
  • COP29
  • Opinion
  • News
    • Economy
    • Energy
    • Climate and Ecology
  • Culture
  • Diaspora
  • Interview
  • Science
  • Logistics-Transport
  • Gender
  • History
  • Defense
  • Karabakh
Aze.MediaAze.Media
Font ResizerAa
Search
  • News
  • Economy
  • Climate and Ecology
  • Energy
  • Opinion
  • Culture
  • Gender
  • Interview
  • Science
  • Logistics-Transport
  • History
  • Defense
  • Karabakh
  • Diaspora
  • Who we are
Follow US
© 2021 Aze.Media – Daily Digest
Aze.Media > Opinion > The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process would be better off without mediators
Opinion

The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process would be better off without mediators

The Kremlin has been traditionally unhappy with the “intervention” of the West in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process. For the Russian side, the mediating efforts of the EU and United States represent their attempt to encroach on Russia’s “sphere of influence” and elbow Russia out of this region.

AzeMedia
By AzeMedia Published May 10, 2023 9 Min Read
Pashinyanaliyev 2
Photo: Munich Security Conference

In an international conference in Shusha, Azerbaijan, on 3 May, while the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan were still deep in negotiations in Washington, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan made some statements about the format of the negotiations between the two countries and the role of mediators. In response to a question whether there are any external actors who might try to prevent a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan, President Aliyev indirectly referred to the negative influence of some actors.

“I think that the best way… to come to an agreement is direct negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia without any mediator and without facilitator or spoiler,” he said. Pointing out the more supportive mediating role of Russia, the EU and United States, and criticizing the biased role of France, President Aliyev noted that “I think direct negotiations between the two countries will be more useful and helpful. I think that we need to go in that direction”, adding that “of course, if Armenia also is ready to do it”.

The Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has so far not publicly advocated a bilateral track of negotiations, but after the Washington meeting he was seen complaining about the security challenges posed by the deployment of the EU monitoring mission to Armenian territory this year.

“It does not provide any security guarantee, on the one hand, it can cause new challenges”, he said without elaborating which challenges he refers to. However, considering Russia’s reaction to this mission and its push for the deployment of the similar mission of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border, one can infer what the Armenian premier is concerned about.

The Russia-West rivalries have negative implications for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process

These developments, and particularly the statement by President Aliyev, indicate that the widely shared perception amongst local experts about potentially negative implications of Russia-West rivalries and their parochial interests for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process may indeed reflect the reality of behind-the-doors negotiations.

In fact, this is not a secret anymore. The Kremlin has been traditionally unhappy with the “intervention” of the West in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process. For the Russian side, the mediating efforts of the EU and United States represent their attempt to encroach on Russia’s “sphere of influence” and elbow Russia out of this region. While the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan were talking in Washington, Russia signaled that it would not support a peace deal that is not agreed upon with Moscow and not built on the basis of statements from the tripartite documents brokered by the Kremlin in 2020-2021.

In this context, the trilateral statements signed by the leaders of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan on 10 November 2020, and on 11 January and 26 November 2021 are seen in Moscow as the major legal instruments to ensure Russia’s interests in a potential peace treaty. “So far, there has been no other legal framework that would contribute to the settlement [of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict]. Thus, these tripartite documents have absolutely no alternative,” the Kremlin spokesman said in reaction to the Washington meeting.

Moscow, apparently, feels itself cornered in the peace process between the two South Caucasian republics. On 23 April, despite earlier objections of the Russian side, Azerbaijan succeeded in installing a border crossing post at the starting point of the Lachin road at the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Azerbaijani leaders had earlier made it clear that the border crossing point was supported by the EU and United States.

The border crossing post at the Lachin road is largely seen as a major blow to Russia’s influence in the region as it restored Azerbaijan’s control over movement between the Karabakh region and Armenia, limited Russia’s scope to manipulate this passage as a leverage against Azerbaijan, and as such constituted a major step towards the realisation of Baku’s demand of the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping mission in 2025. In parallel, the holding of four-day negotiations in Washington, the re-activation of the Brussels format of Aliyev-Pashinyan-Michel talks, and the announcement of already three EU-mediated meetings this year do not bode well for Russia’s role in the region.

The success of peace efforts does not depend on solely on Baku and Yerevan

Russia still does have some leverage over the region, however, and particularly over Armenia, which makes it so far an indispensable actor. This is the reason why both Baku and Yerevan seek to avoid provoking Russia and proceed with a balancing act between the rival mediators. The Moscow visit of the Armenian premier on 9 May and the planning of the new round of the foreign ministers’ meeting in Russia appear as the manifestation of these efforts.

As the aforementioned statement of President Aliyev and Pashinyan’s concerns about the EU monitoring mission demonstrated, the two South Caucasian republics do not look entirely happy with the role of the mediators in their peace efforts. It is now clear that the success of these efforts may not depend solely on Baku and Yerevan. Devastating hostilities between the West and Russia and the jealous reaction of the Russian side to the growing role of the United States in the region seriously complicate the peace process. Nevertheless, the latest dynamics in the process, increasingly frequent meetings and occasionally positive messages show goodwill of the sides and raise hope that this historic momentum will deliver a long-awaited peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Dr Vasif Huseynov, is a Senior Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) and Adjunct Lecturer at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan.

logo-italic

You Might Also Like

Mutual benefit draws relations between Damascus and Baku

Iran launches attack on Azerbaijan-Israel ties: ‘Two nations, one state’

Azerbaijan’s role in the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijan’s emerging role in post-Assad Syria

Visit of Ukraine’s Foreign Minister to Azerbaijan: Much to discuss, much to prepare for

AzeMedia May 10, 2023 May 10, 2023

New articles

Dik 1536x1024 1 750x375
Azerbaijan and Israel: Strategic partnership in an era of tectonic change
Interview May 24, 2025
Pakistan jf 17 (modified)
Türkiye-Pakistan-Azerbaijan trilateral defence cooperation
Defense May 24, 2025
6817641c96d6e6817641c96d6f17463634206817641c96d6c6817641c96d6d
Mutual benefit draws relations between Damascus and Baku
Opinion May 23, 2025
Fszpqenxwaa sgn
Iran launches attack on Azerbaijan-Israel ties: ‘Two nations, one state’
Opinion May 23, 2025
Israel Azerbaijan Flag 220323
Azerbaijan’s role in the Abraham Accords
Opinion May 23, 2025
Ilham aliyev met with syrian president ahmed al sharaa 2
Azerbaijan’s emerging role in post-Assad Syria
Opinion May 23, 2025
Solar2
Nobel energy moves forward with Major Solar Projects in Azerbaijan
Energy News May 23, 2025
Facts presented regarding Armenia’s commitment to military intervention on Azerbaijani territory
News May 22, 2025
57d0073364414 fb big 720
Visit of Ukraine’s Foreign Minister to Azerbaijan: Much to discuss, much to prepare for
Opinion May 22, 2025
Putin aliyev august 2024 1536x948.jpg
Azerbaijan-Russia relations remain stuck in airplane crash crisis
Opinion May 22, 2025

You Might Also Like

6817641c96d6e6817641c96d6f17463634206817641c96d6c6817641c96d6d

Mutual benefit draws relations between Damascus and Baku

May 23, 2025 10 Min Read
Fszpqenxwaa sgn

Iran launches attack on Azerbaijan-Israel ties: ‘Two nations, one state’

May 23, 2025 4 Min Read
Israel Azerbaijan Flag 220323

Azerbaijan’s role in the Abraham Accords

May 23, 2025 7 Min Read
Ilham aliyev met with syrian president ahmed al sharaa 2

Azerbaijan’s emerging role in post-Assad Syria

May 23, 2025 8 Min Read
57d0073364414 fb big 720

Visit of Ukraine’s Foreign Minister to Azerbaijan: Much to discuss, much to prepare for

May 22, 2025 7 Min Read
Putin aliyev august 2024 1536x948.jpg

Azerbaijan-Russia relations remain stuck in airplane crash crisis

May 22, 2025 8 Min Read
Images

Legacy of the Armenian occupation: Azerbaijan faces massive reconstruction challenges

May 21, 2025 11 Min Read
Indiya kitaj

The Caucasus in the crosshairs: India militarizes, China invests

May 19, 2025 12 Min Read

Useful links

426082d1 a9e4 4ac5 95d4 4e84024eb314 pojkz91103g6zqfh8kiacu662b2tn9znit7ssu9ekg
Ab65ed96 2f4a 4220 91ac f70a6daaf659 pojkz67iflcc0wjkp1aencvsa5gq06ogif9cd0dl34
96e40a2b 5fed 4332 83c6 60e4a89fd4d0 pojkz836t9ewo4gue23nscepgx7gfkvx6okbbkasqo
759bde00 a375 4fa1 bedc f8e9580ceeca pq8mvb9kwubqf6bcadpkq5mz16nayr162k3j2084cg
aze-media-logo-ag1

We are a unique political and socio-cultural digest offering exclusive materials, translations from Azerbaijani media, and reprints of articles from around the world about Azerbaijan.

  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Cookies Policy

Email: editor@aze.media

© 2021 Aze.Media – Daily Digest
aze-media-logo1 aze-media-logo-ag1
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?