On the eve of Azerbaijan marking 40 days since the Aktau tragedy—the crash of an Embraer passenger plane operated by AZAL on the Baku-Grozny route—the Kazakh Ministry of Transport published a preliminary report on the plane crash. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Transport also released an official statement.
Undoubtedly, much of the data presented in the Kazakh Ministry of Transport’s report can only be fully understood by aviation experts. Moreover, as emphasized in both Baku and Astana, this is a preliminary report, while ICAO regulations allow up to a year to finalize the investigation. Finally, it is particularly emphasized that the report does not aim to assign blame but is intended to enhance air safety. It’s worth noting that air crash investigations follow specific procedures, focusing on purely “aviation-related” circumstances—such as the technical condition of the aircraft, crew training, engine performance, flight parameters, etc.
That said, the published documents serve as a damning indictment. The crash was caused by an external impact on the aircraft.
At 04:55:54, the flight crew reported losing both GPS signals. As is now known from other sources, GPS signals were being jammed from the ground as part of an “anti-drone strategy.” However, the crew was not warned about this, and the pilots continued their approach to landing.
The fatal turn of events occurred at 05:13. Analysis and cross-referencing of data from the flight recorders—both voice and parameter recorders—show that due to adverse weather conditions over Grozny, the aircraft was unable to make a second landing attempt. The captain then decided to return to Baku. Shortly afterward, the cockpit voice recorder captured two external noises 24 seconds apart. Further data comparison showed that four seconds after the first external noise, the aircraft’s third hydraulic system failed; six seconds later, the first hydraulic system failed; and 21 seconds later, the second hydraulic system failed.
In aviation-technical terms: the aircraft was struck by two anti-aircraft missiles, whose shrapnel destroyed the hydraulic systems. These very “foreign elements” have already been extracted from the aircraft’s fuselage. Photos of the debris, as well as the holes left by the shrapnel, are included in the report. An international forensic analysis is still pending, but Azerbaijani government sources have already told Reuters: the Azerbaijani civilian aircraft was shot down by a Russian Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile.
This means that, based on the published data and leaks, Azerbaijan now possesses virtually all the necessary evidence proving that a civilian Azerbaijani aircraft, making a scheduled landing at a civilian airport, was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile. This is confirmed by the voice recorder data (external noises), the parameter recorder (failure of all three hydraulic systems), and, finally, the holes in the fuselage and the foreign objects found inside. This is no longer a theory or assumption—it is, in essence, an established fact.
So, will Moscow deny everything again? Will there again be no acknowledgment of responsibility, no clear apologies, no investigation or punishment of the guilty, and no compensation? For those who haven’t grasped it yet, the preliminary report disproves all the initial theories that Russian official agencies, including Rosaviatsiya, rushed to circulate immediately after the Embraer crash. There was no “bird strike,” no “oxygen tank explosion.” Yes, the crew did mention birds, but as previously noted by Minval, no civilian pilot landing a scheduled flight at a civilian airport would ever imagine their plane had been hit by an anti-aircraft missile.
Russian officials, however, were obligated to know the truth about what really happened in the skies over Grozny. Which means they deliberately lied and even unleashed their propagandists on Azerbaijan.
So what happens next? Will Moscow also read the Kazakh Transport Ministry’s report “selectively”? Will they advise waiting for the final results of the investigation? Interestingly, Russia had a chance to at least partially defuse the situation—admit responsibility and make an appropriate statement. The investigation results were known to both sides in advance, so Moscow had time to prepare. But instead, the Kremlin, as always, chose the “we know nothing” tactic and decided to simply ignore the obvious.
Unfortunately, there is no sign of a change in Russia’s approach. Russian media are already claiming that “the Russian side has not yet received samples of the foreign elements found in the aircraft’s fuselage for expert analysis,” and therefore, “statements by certain foreign media identifying them as missile shrapnel from a Pantsir system require further study.” However, representatives from both Azerbaijan and Russia are participating in the investigation, so the samples are almost certainly available. Moreover, while the Azerbaijani Ministry of Transport has already issued a statement, Russian officials remain silent. And there are many questions they need to answer.
Perhaps one needs to be a specialist to assess the competence of the air traffic controllers who communicated with the doomed Embraer—first Russian, then Kazakh controllers. But there is no doubt about one thing: the GPS jamming began at 04:55. There is no need to explain how dangerous this is for an aircraft in the air. But no one informed the crew about the jamming, nor about the ongoing drone warfare on the ground!
At 05:13, the plane was hit by missiles. And again, no one informed the crew about anything! Only at 05:21 did the air traffic controller tell the AZAL pilots that the “Kover” plan had been activated on the ground. Yes, airports were informed about this plan earlier, but the Embraer pilots couldn’t hear those communications. In short, 26 minutes passed between the start of anti-drone operations and when the pilots were finally informed! When the airspace should have been closed immediately!
We do not believe that the Azerbaijani plane was shot down intentionally. And we refrain from conspiracy theories such as “they planned to shoot down an Azerbaijani plane, blame it on Ukrainian drones, and pit Baku against Kyiv.” But isn’t it too many mistakes for a single flight? If the aircraft landing in Grozny had come from Moscow or St. Petersburg instead of Baku, would Russian air defense officers and air traffic controllers have been equally reckless?
And finally, after 40 days, have the military prosecutor’s office and the Investigative Committee still found no reason to detain those responsible for the crash? Would Ramzan Kadyrov still have awarded his nephew for “bravely” firing air defense missiles at a civilian plane?
At this point, it’s hardly worth reminding anyone that the sky belongs to everyone. And it does not forgive mistakes. If there is no proper response to the actions of Russian air defense and air traffic controllers in the case of the Azerbaijani plane, another airliner could be “accidentally” shot down tomorrow. In a normal society, shocking revelations about an air disaster should have triggered a massive purge in both air defense and air traffic control, where there is clearly no proper coordination or even basic information-sharing.
Once again: Russian aviation authorities knew long before the Kazakh Ministry of Transport’s report that Russian air defense had fired on a civilian plane, that air traffic controllers either did not know about the “Kover” plan or did not see fit to inform pilots in the air. But there are no signs of an investigation or punishment for those responsible. Russian authorities, it seems, consider it unnecessary to react to the death of an Azerbaijani plane.
And rest assured, Baku will draw its own conclusions. Yes, we value friendly relations with Russia. But that does not mean Azerbaijan must be the only one working to preserve them—especially at the cost of ignoring the deaths of its own citizens for the sake of Moscow’s diplomatic smiles. So let’s not indulge in illusions. Mistakes are unforgivable—not only in the sky but also on the ground.
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
