Kiriyenko’s increased activity signals Moscow’s ambitions to expand and fully integrate these separatist regions, along with Armenia and Moldova, into the so-called “Union State.”
The Telegram channel Kremlin Tabakerka, which is closely linked to the Russian presidential administration, claims that Kiriyenko has already begun implementing plans to integrate Abkhazia into Russia. It reports that the “presidential elections” held in Abkhazia in February 2025 resulted in the victory of Moscow’s favored candidate, Badri Gunba. However, the region’s future remains uncertain.
The idea of annexing Abkhazia was last actively discussed in 2023. Following this, a delegation of high-ranking Russian politicians visited the region. But according to Kremlin Tabakerka, three months later it was Kiriyenko himself who stalled the formal incorporation of Abkhazia into the Russian Federation.
On May 1, for the first time in thirty years, regular flights between Moscow and Sukhumi resumed. Additionally, a new electric train service was launched between Imeretinsky Kurort and Sukhumi.
Russian media sources have announced the next phase: aggressively promoting Abkhazia as a domestic tourist destination. Federal newspapers are publishing propaganda pieces highlighting Abkhazia’s tourism appeal, and popular travel bloggers are being invited to open the beach season there.
“Nevertheless, Kiriyenko must demonstrate visible activity in the region. It’s worth noting that this — a strong media campaign — was exactly what [former Kremlin deputy] Kozak’s efforts lacked. After intensive information groundwork, Kiriyenko might return to the annexation issue,” the Telegram channel states.
A similar policy is being pursued toward South Ossetia. On May 8, the self-proclaimed “president” Alan Gagloev personally congratulated his curator, Kiriyenko, on Victory Day. In response, Kiriyenko announced that President Putin had allocated one million rubles from his reserve fund to every village and school in South Ossetia in honor of the celebration.
On May 9, after attending the parade in Moscow, Gagloev held a separate meeting with Putin in the Kremlin. The Russian president assured his ally that the “republic” would receive comprehensive support.
Judging by the media campaign unfolding in Russia, the idea of annexing South Ossetia into the Federation now appears to dominate Moscow’s agenda. Although leaders of the separatist regime had previously made multiple appeals to join Russia, the Kremlin had been reluctant to formally absorb the breakaway republic. That seems to be changing.
However, Kiriyenko’s main focus is Armenia. Efforts are underway to reinvigorate pro-Russian revanchist forces, who are escalating pressure on the government through the media.
For instance, a “civil initiative” composed of pro-Russian figures has proposed a new motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. They are seeking support from at least 36 MPs to put the issue of impeachment on the parliamentary agenda.
The “Armenia” faction led by former President Robert Kocharyan (with 27 mandates) has expressed readiness to support the initiative if nine more signatures are collected. The “I Have Honor” faction of ex-President Serzh Sargsyan (7 mandates) also signaled its willingness to participate. However, attempts to lure two “traitors” from the pro-Western camp have been blocked by the ruling party.
Now, the opposition appears to be considering an alternative: reviving mass street protests. Kocharyan’s faction openly admits that a parliamentary route to oust Pashinyan is unlikely, so a revolutionary overthrow of the “unwelcome government” may be necessary.
A few days ago, the newspaper Graparak, citing its sources, reported that Kiriyenko’s appointment as Armenia’s curator confirms Russia’s growing interest in its former satellite.
According to the outlet, Kocharyan visited the Kremlin weeks ago and held consultations with Putin — followed shortly by Kiriyenko’s appointment. Notably, Graparak was the first to report in March 2025 on Kiriyenko’s assignment to oversee the “Armenian direction.”
“The appointment of Kiriyenko was not accidental — it happened at Kocharyan’s request after his recent meeting with Putin. Following this, several opposition figures from Yerevan traveled to Moscow. All political actors deemed acceptable by the Kremlin have recently visited Russia and held meetings at various levels,” the newspaper reports.
According to Graparak, Russian officials express reservations about only one politician — Serzh Sargsyan. (It seems Putin hasn’t forgiven him for failing to prevent the color revolution that ended Russia’s dominance in Armenia.) “Everyone else was told: work, fight, stay active — and we’ll support whoever proves the most influential and promising. Some explain the destructive behavior of Sargsyan’s camp in the opposition field by this very dynamic,” the article adds.
Meanwhile, as Russian ties with Armenia’s opposition deepen, Pashinyan’s government is quietly resuming cooperation with Moscow. Pashinyan attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9. Reports suggest that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko will soon visit Yerevan.
All signs indicate that Russia has significantly adjusted its Armenia policy and developed a new two-track strategy: strengthen the pro-Russian opposition and return them to power — or, if that fails, tighten cooperation with the current pro-Western government amid the unraveling of the “collective West.”
Farhad Mammadov
Translated from haqqin.az
