A few days ago, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan—realizing, apparently, the kind of “oops” he had driven himself into with the recent completely senseless and self-destructive shelling of Azerbaijani Armed Forces positions, and seemingly trying to reinforce his vainly crafted image as a “dove of peace”—decided to give an interview to Armenian Public Television. In it, the head of government made a number of statements that may seem positive at first glance, but upon closer inspection, once again reveal the insincerity of the Prime Minister of all Armenia.
For instance, Pashinyan suddenly announced that his country would “initiate” (!) the issue of dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group. Let us remind this belated “initiator” that, in fact, this proposal was first made by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, as one of the conditions for signing a peace agreement with Yerevan. A tendency toward plagiarism is a sin long traditionally associated with his people. But fine, this initiative isn’t a “symphony” to fight over intellectual property rights—although the internet remembers everything, and anyone can track where this idea originated. After all, Baku had criticized the Minsk Group for many years, while it was the Armenian side that desperately clung to this format.
We also remember very well how coldly the co-chairs of this group were received by the President of Azerbaijan on December 12, 2020, when he openly told them that the conflict was in the past, that they had not been invited to Baku, and that they should now consider their new functions—if any could even be imagined—since the very reason for the creation and existence of this structure, the conflict itself, was no more. In Armenia, on the contrary, they never stopped desperately appealing to the institution of the co-chairs, clinging to that trio like a final straw. And suddenly—voilà!—Pashinyan now “initiates” its dissolution.
Well, all right, the main thing is the final result: driving the last nail into the coffin of this long-dead body, which has been overdue for burial.
But Pashinyan wouldn’t be Pashinyan if he didn’t start “dodging” again. He said the following: “The issue of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship is clearly debatable, since we are moving towards peace, and this format is losing its relevance.” What are these new formulations again? What does “debatable issue” even mean? What is there left to debate? Inform Baku of your agreement, and then jointly submit the request to the OSCE Secretariat—it’s a matter of a couple of days. Baku already has a draft of the joint appeal ready. All that remains is to sign it—and that’s it. What other “discussions” are there in Armenian society? Why? It’s obvious that behind the term “debatable issue” lies Pashinyan’s intention to drag the process out indefinitely and, as usual, talk the topic to death. In Azerbaijan, for example, there’s a common understanding that there’s simply nothing left to discuss. Therefore, Pashinyan’s very first proposal in his interview to Armenian Public Television exposes the Prime Minister’s lack of sincerity and his intention to once again play “cat and mouse” with Baku.
So here’s our advice to the Prime Minister: stop dragging your feet and other parts of the cat—inform your Azerbaijani colleagues that you’re ready to immediately sign the joint Baku-Yerevan appeal to Vienna on dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group.
In the same interview, the Armenian head of government also announced his intention to hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution for the country. Well, that’s certainly a necessary step, but—as always—the devil is in the details. What exactly will differentiate the new version of the constitution from the current one, and what is the specific need for a new constitution? Pashinyan did not clarify. Moreover, he stated that the referendum would take place in 2027.
Firstly, isn’t that a bit too late? Is Pashinyan considering the possibility of losing the next elections, or is he absolutely confident of victory? And what if a majority in the new parliament ends up belonging to a party that opposes any constitutional changes and clings to irredentist positions? What then?
Secondly, and more sensitively—does Pashinyan realize that anything could happen in the two years leading up to the proposed referendum? After all, without the fulfillment of two key conditions, a peace agreement will not be signed, and he seems to have already understood that. This means that technically, Armenia and Azerbaijan remain in a state of war. No peace means that the risk of renewed hostilities remains high. Does Armenia need that? Azerbaijan certainly doesn’t. But isn’t Armenia at risk of remaining in a state of unresolved conflict while also continuing to shell Azerbaijani positions? Doesn’t that create grounds for retaliatory or even preemptive actions? That could lead to changes on the ground, rendering all prior domestic preparations irrelevant—and everything would then have to start over from scratch, with—attention!—new realities in mind. Is that what you want, neighbors?
No, of course, we’re far from trying to intimidate anyone—but anything is possible, right? Wouldn’t it be better to hurry—both with dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group and with cleansing the constitution of the remnants of a conflict that is effectively over in Karabakh? Without waiting for (and provoking) the outbreak of a new one… one that could be far from Karabakh itself.
Zuhrab Dadashov
