A new “Great Game” is unfolding in the South Caucasus and Central Asia — this time not between two empires as in the 19th century, but in a multipolar world where the EU, China, Turkey, Russia, the United States, and increasingly Azerbaijan are competing for influence. This is the central argument in an analytical article published by The National Interest, authored by Mathew Burrows and Josef Braml.
According to the authors, Azerbaijan now plays a central role in redrawing the region’s geopolitical, trade, and energy map. With Russia weakened by the war in Ukraine and under mounting sanctions, Baku is expanding its energy partnership with the European Union via the Southern Gas Corridor and becoming an indispensable hub in the Middle Corridor — a trans-Eurasian trade route linking China to Europe, bypassing Russia.
Special attention is given to the Zangezur Corridor, which aims to connect mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia. If realized, the corridor would deepen Azerbaijan–Turkey integration, reduce dependency on transit routes via Iran and Russia, and strengthen Baku’s position as a regional logistics and energy power.
The article notes that Azerbaijan’s geographic location makes it irreplaceable for the development of the Middle Corridor. Beyond its own energy exports, Azerbaijan also facilitates trade between Russia, Iran, and China — underscoring Baku’s flexible, multi-vector foreign policy.
While Azerbaijan strengthens ties with Turkey, Israel, and China, it maintains strategic autonomy and broad diplomatic outreach. Armenia, once heavily dependent on Russia, is now moving closer to the West. According to the article, the shifting balance has opened the way for bilateral peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan without Russian mediation — a historic shift after more than three decades of conflict.
As Russia’s influence fades and Georgia’s reliability declines, the EU and the United States increasingly see Azerbaijan as a strategic partner. The authors argue that the evolving geopolitical landscape presents Azerbaijan with a unique opportunity to position itself as a crucial bridge between East and West — in energy, trade, and diplomacy.
