The most difficult and sensitive aspect of the peace talks deal with territory. And on this question, it remains unclear where the US stands.
Russia annexed a fifth of Ukrainian territory in 2014 and in 2022, most notably Crimea and four oblasts (regions). Countries with irridentist agendas are closely watching whether the US will continue to support the sanctity of the territorial integrity of states or, towards reviving US-Russian relations, accommodate and accept Russian territorial conquests.
Russian Presidents Boris Yeltsyn and Vladimir Putin denied the right of Chechens to their independence, fighting bloody wars against them in the 1990s and 2000s. At the same time, Russia used the independence of Kosovo from Serbia to justify Crimea’s ‘right’ to ‘self-determination’ from Ukraine.
Armenia, which had occupied a fifth of Azerbaijan since the early 1990s, viewed Crimea as an example of how Karabakh could also claim ‘self-determination’ from Azerbaijan. At the UN, resolutions condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea were supported by overwhelming majorities. But based on its support for the ‘self-determination’ of Karabakh, Armenia voted together with Russia against these UN resolutions.
Pro-Russian leaders in Armenia were replaced in the 2018 revolution with pro-Western political forces led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. At the UN, Armenia switched from voting with Russia to abstaining, thus joining most other countries in Eurasia.
Interestingly, even countries aligned with Russia in its Axis of Upheaval against the West do not support Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories. At the UN, China and Iran, for example, two countries with large numbers of national minorities, have abstained in votes on resolutions condemning Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.
Türkiye, which has fought Kurdish separatism for five decades, is strongly committed to the principle of the territorial integrity of states. Turkey firmly supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Turkish President Recep T. Erdogan has refused to recognize Crimea as Russian. On the 11th anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea through an illegitimate referendum, the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed support for Ukraine’s sovereignty: “We reiterate that Turkey does not recognise the de facto situation in Crimea, which is a violation of international law, and that we support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.”
Türkiye has long held a policy of agreeing to ‘normalise’ relations with Armenia, including opening their joint border, only after a peace treaty is signed between Yerevan and Baku. A fifth of Azerbaijan was occupied by Armenia from the early 1990s to the Second Karabakh War in 2020. The last piece of occupied territory, Karabakh, was returned to Azerbaijan as recently as two years ago.
Russia’s undermining of international law and the principle of the territorial integrity of states in fact has little international backing. Even in Eurasia, where most countries seek to maintain good relations with Putin’s Russia, only one country – Belarus – opposes resolutions at the UN condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine and annexation of Ukrainian territories. All other Eurasian countries either abstain or vote for UN resolutions condemning Russia.
Russia has maintained its maximalist demands since the Spring of 2022 for ending the war. These demands include that Ukraine transfer the areas it controls in the four oblasts (regions) of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, and Luhansk to Russia and to recognise them and Crimea, which was annexed earlier in 2014, as belonging to Russia. Ukraine has, not surprisingly, refused to agree to either of these two Russian demands.
During his first term as US president in 2016-2020, Trump described Crimea as Russian because, he said, people who live there speak Russian. The fact most people in Ireland speak English and all Austrians speak German does not make the Republic of Eire part of the United Kingdom or Austria part of Germany. Most of Latin America, except Brazil, speaks Spanish but nobody would expect Spain to claim sovereignty over these countries.
National security adviser Mike Waltz said Ukraine would have to cede some of its Donbas region to Russia if it wants a long-term peace deal. This was because, Walz said, the Donbas region was heavily populated by people from Russia, again mistakenly associating Russian speakers as being Russian people. In fact, a majority of the inhabitants of the Donbas were ethnic Ukrainians.
The Trump administration is also weighing whether to recognise Crimea as Russian. Joshi Shashank, defence editor of The Economist, wrote: ‘If it recognised Crimea, the US would be endorsing the principle of allowing borders to move by force. It has already taken that step in the Middle East (Golan) but not in Europe. A dark and terrible path to go down in desperation to normalize ties with Russia by a desperate administration.’
The US would be asking the UN to follow suit and recognise Crimea as Russian. But the UN and other international organisations would be unable to continue to exist if the principle of the territorial integrity of states was jettisoned.
Russia is in a minority of countries in the world that believes borders can be changed by military force. If the US were to support Russia, by for example recognising Crimea as Russian, this step would open the floodgates to irridentist demands throughout the world.
Do we really want to return to living in the nineteenth century under the slogan ‘might is right’ with smaller countries consigned to spheres of influence and the great powers making decisions over their heads. This would be a recipe for an explosion of conflicts around the world – and the Norwegian Nobel Committee revoking Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize.
Taras Kuzio is professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, co-author of The Four Roots of Russia’s War Against Ukraine and co-editor of Russia and Modern Fascism: New Perspectives on the Kremlin’s War Against Ukraine.
