The agenda is quite extensive: Hajiyev met with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs John Bass, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Yuri Kim, and Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Robert Gilchrist. During these meetings, they discussed bilateral relations, the current situation in regional and global security, and a wide range of issues, including the normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
This is far from “diplomatic routine.” In recent weeks and months, there have been significant tensions between Baku and Washington, not only regarding human rights issues or the evaluation of the early presidential elections in Azerbaijan, where the U.S. embassy issued a rather strange press release. Serious damage to bilateral relations was caused by Washington’s flirtations with Yerevan and provocative negotiations between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Nikol Pashinyan, where, according to leaks, military assistance to Armenia was discussed before a peace agreement with Azerbaijan was signed. Additionally, at Congressional hearings, both Yuri Kim and James O’Brien made several statements that caused confusion at best and outrage at worst in Baku.
However, now, judging by many indirect signs, Washington is building bridges with Baku after a tough diplomatic confrontation. This became evident after the trip to Shusha by the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby.
Strictly speaking, this trip does not change the status of the city of Shusha. Azerbaijan does not need such confirmations of its territorial integrity—our country was recognized within its borders, including Karabakh, back in 1991-1992, including by the USA. But Libby’s trip to Shusha, which was surrounded by speculation and disputes at the time, undoubtedly sent a “message” to the Azerbaijani audience: Washington is ready to “untangle knots.” And Hajiyev’s trip to Washington confirms this new trend quite eloquently.
This is mainly a Washington trend, not a Baku one. The ball was initially in the American court—not to mention that the tough diplomatic dialogue between Baku and Washington was also provoked by the U.S., starting with congressional hearings and ending with the meeting in Brussels.
Another thing is clear. Any diplomatic skirmish, except perhaps the most severe cases, ends with bridge-building—albeit taking into account new realities and emphases. It is easy to guess: during this time, Washington has already had the opportunity to see that Azerbaijan is not interested in collapsing relations with the U.S., but will not allow its “red lines” to be crossed: respect for territorial integrity, state sovereignty, and non-interference in internal affairs. Yes, Azerbaijan is not a country that can be easily “bent.” Especially on principled issues.
Moreover, today, after the victory in Karabakh, Azerbaijan is the undisputed leader of the South Caucasus in political, economic, and military terms. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, speaking to the first residents returning to Shusha, warned: “I want to say once again to both the Azerbaijani people and those interested in this region: from now on, not a single step should be taken here without our agreement. I am sure they hear me; they know that if I say something, I will do it.” In other words, Azerbaijan now sets the “weather” in the region.
Finally, the context has changed. On the entire western diplomatic front, there is a clear revival. Recently, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, visited Azerbaijan. Following him, the President of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, arrived in the capital of Azerbaijan. The focus is on the “Solidarity Ring” project, which envisages the supply of Azerbaijani gas to European countries. And now—Hikmet Hajiyev’s trip to the USA, his meetings with senior American diplomats responsible for the South Caucasus.
Moreover, not long ago, American diplomats might have thought that Georgia and Armenia had chosen the “road to the West,” leaving Azerbaijan with no choice but to fit into the general trend where Washington and Brussels would dictate the rules. But now, not only are relations with Georgia on the brink of a full-scale crisis, but Washington cannot fail to notice the prolonged wavering of Nikol Pashinyan, whose “pro-Western zeal” seems to have been overestimated. Nikol Vovaevich negotiated in Moscow that Russian border guards would leave the border with Azerbaijan, but remain on the borders with Turkey and Iran, that Armenia would not leave the CSTO and the EEU, though it refuses funding, and that finally, no one would close the Russian base, including its new “locations,” nor disband joint ground forces and air defense groupings, while continuing to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia through Armenia. The contrast with the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan turned out to be too stark. Continuing an “Armenian-centric” policy under such conditions is at least illogical.
Therefore, American diplomats have much to discuss with Hikmet Hajiyev.
Nurani
