On top of that, the ending of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in 2023 and the transition of relations between the countries to a completely new phase. All this makes us wonder what 2024 will be like for Azerbaijan. Should we expect any nice or nasty surprises?
Minval.az asked former Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Tofig Zulfugarov to answer these questions.
The question of the year for Azerbaijan: will a peace treaty with Armenia be signed in 2024?
First of all, let’s elaborate on the notion of a peace treaty. We know that this is small and is a framework peace agreement, which will list the principles on the basis of which, after its signing, negotiations on various tracks will take place. For example, on the delimitation of borders, restoration of communications, humanitarian issues, etc. Talks are already underway on borders and communications, and I am sure that this year a new humanitarian track will be opened. And sometimes people think that if this document is signed, all problems will be automatically solved. However, today we have only an intention and we assume that a framework document will be signed.
If we recall the statement of the Assistant of the President of Azerbaijan, he said that with regard to the borders the readiness to observe and respect each other’s territorial integrity will be confirmed. But in fact, the very delimitation of the borders will happen afterwards. That is, this kind of document will be signed, because it is the completion of the initiative of Azerbaijan, which put forward the principles for the document, including mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual confirmation of the absence of any territorial claims to each other and the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Today, the statement by the two sides that the text is essentially close to being finalized looks quite optimistic. However, this does not mean that the problems of border delimitation, communications, etc. will be solved practically, because negotiations on them may last for many years.
The question may sound strange to you, but I wonder if there is any reason for Armenia to sign this document. For Azerbaijan the situation is clear, we want to protect ourselves in the future from Armenia’s attacks and aggression. But what will such document give to Armenia? After all, Azerbaijan has already declared that it has no intention to invade Zangezur…
I believe you are not describing the situation quite accurately. First of all, we won. But if we proceed from the political basis of what happened, it was a pushback against the aggressor and forcing it to peace, which means that Armenia, as a party that committed armed aggression, should be guided not by its delusional nationalist ideas, but by international law. Following this, immediately after the war, Azerbaijan initiated the post-conflict peace process and laid the foundations of the well-known five principles, which in general repeat the norms of international law. Therefore, when we say that we have no territorial claims against Armenia, it is absolutely true. But which Azerbaijan has no claims and against which Armenia? We are not addressing the issue of border delimitation. Only time and negotiations will show how these issues will be determined. As a matter of fact, the process of defining the borders has already started. Armenia has suggested maps of 1975, and this is its position, while Azerbaijan proceeds from the fact that maps of different years can be used for different parts of the border.
That is, the 1920 maps for Zangezur or the 1929 maps for Goycha Mahal may apply. All this will be revealed only in the course of negotiations. We have no territorial claims against Armenia. There is only a need to define borders and this process has begun. Do you remember Pashinyan’s statement where he gives several thousand square kilometers to Azerbaijan and sets aside some for himself? But this is his position and it is not the ultimate truth.
And another thing… There are references to the Alma-Ata Declaration. But it was Armenia that refused to apply these principles to Azerbaijan. Immediately after the signing they made an amendment as their official position, saying that Armenia offers its territorial security with annexed “Nagorno-Karabakh”. This is their official position. That is, they disavowed these principles with regard to Azerbaijan. And they are well aware of this. Therefore, realizing that it is necessary to define the principles regarding the borders, Pashinyan proposed to use the 1975 maps, and French President Emmanuel Macron supported him. But this does not mean that we should take all this as the ultimate truth.
Here it is important to steer away from a fairly widespread stereotype imposed by propaganda, claiming that Armenia has recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Where? When? In what aspect? There are several versions of the territorial integrity that they recognized. Pashinyan himself has voiced four different versions regarding Armenia’s territorial integrity. He has stated completely different things and the last one is the borders outlined in the 1975 maps.
Speaking of Pashinyan’s position. Is it possible that the person who has changed his position several times and made different statements will refuse to sign the peace treaty? It is one thing to dance at the stadium in Khankendi and make absurd statements like “Artsakh is Armenia” and another thing to sign an official international document that will give any other Armenian leader an opportunity to blame their political failures and mistakes on Pashinyan…
More than that, they will say that he had no right to sign such document because it contradicts the Armenian constitution, which states that “the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region is annexed to Armenia”. They will say that according to the constitution, he had no right to do so and should have held a referendum.
So, how can we protect ourselves from Armenia reneging on signed documents, or sending some amendment retroactively that would invalidate an already signed document?
There are no documents that give a full guarantee. Remember Ukraine. Three countries pledged to guarantee Ukraine’s territorial integrity in Budapest in 1994 in exchange for it giving up nuclear weapons, and as a result, one of the guarantors of Ukraine’s security committed armed aggression and changed its territorial integrity. There are no such mechanisms. We have a similar example. Resolutions of the UN Security Council, which are imperative, that is, mandatory for implementation, but they did not work either. That is, even resolutions give no guarantees.
Our only guarantee is a strong Azerbaijan and armed forces securing sovereignty and territorial integrity. The document will not address specific borders, but merely the principle of mutual respect for territorial integrity. So Pashinyan can sign it. But the territorial integrity itself will be determined in the course of negotiations.
On the one hand, Armenia claims that it is ready for rapprochement with Azerbaijan, and on the other hand, it buys weapons from France or India. Frontline offensive weapons, at that. Are they preparing for future wars with us? Obviously, such purchases give hope and fuel the interest of separatist groups in Armenia.
Armenia is not the only country whose declarations are at odds with real actions. And anyway, this is the rule of real international politics: you declare one thing but do another. There are no mechanisms that could make this state of affairs impossible. Take Nakhchivan, for example. The formation of this autonomy was part of the agreement signed between the RSFSR and Türkiye, which acted as a guarantor of the security of this territory, since the USSR became the legal successor of the RSFSR and Russia became the legal successor of the USSR. But did the guarantors do anything when the first Karabakh war was going on and when Armenia was attacking Nakhchivan? No. So these kinds of statements are not practical and are more of a declarative nature.
The last three years have been momentous for Azerbaijan. The country has made a great leap forward and asserted itself as a full-fledged subject of international law and a participant in international relations. Would you say that the year 2024 will be a turning point for Azerbaijan? If yes, in what way will it be manifested? What are your expectations for this year?
I think that this post-conflict situation will gradually move into the realm of negotiations and negotiations will begin after the signing of this framework peace agreement. The main issues will be moved to the negotiating track. I hope that we will not see any more military provocations by Armenia like the ones that happened after the 44-day war in 2020.
As for foreign policy in general, I think Azerbaijan will use the situation in the world, which has developed by the beginning of this year, with a view to accelerating the process of return of temporarily internally displaced people, once expelled from their homes, and this will be the basis of actions in the economic and political life of the country. Proof of this is the schedule of the President of Azerbaijan, his visits to Karabakh and much more. There will also be active efforts to attract investments into the country. It is one thing to attract investments to a country at war and another thing to attract investments to a country where there is a lasting peace. All this will lead to processes related to reforms in the social sphere, possibly in the political sphere as well.
I assume that the role of municipalities in regional governance will increase. A lot will also change in our parliamentary system, as this body of government should play a more visible role in the current situation. There are a lot of expectations, and let us hope that they will be materialized. These are complex processes and one cannot think that all this will be accomplished within this year. But some elements are already becoming visible.
What will the year be like for the world, in terms of geopolitics? Experts expect tension associated with further escalation of wars and conflicts in the regions of the Middle East, and even Europe. There is also China and Taiwan… What is most realistic, in your opinion?
As we can see, Azerbaijan is on the path of establishing an atmosphere of stability in the region and curbing conflicts. This is not only about Armenia. Remember, relations with Iran were quite complicated but we were able to normalize them step by step. We saw a similar situation with Russia in February 2022, and as a result a fundamental framework document was signed. Azerbaijan wants to make the entire region a haven of stability and security through which energy can be exported. The country is moving to the third stage of energy exports. The first was oil, then gas, and now practical steps are being taken in the field of alternative energy production. I am optimistic about the year ahead.
I have to ask about the frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union. Today there is information that the situation with Transnistria is heating up in Moldova. There is also Georgia, who wants to eliminate the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia…
It is difficult to speak for other countries. But we must realize that the resolution of this problem lay, among other things, in the use of force. But we should not discount other important components of this situation, such as foreign policy, which ensured the accomplishment of the objectives of restoring sovereignty and territorial integrity. We cannot ignore such a factor, which for 30 years was a potential for armed aggression—the Armenia-Russia relations. We were able to break through that.
Azerbaijan has built pragmatic relations with Russia, which ensure that mutual interests are taken into account. Or allied relations with Türkiye, brought to a level that provided the basis for the support that was not there during the first Karabakh war. This is not just about weapons. Strengthening the army is the most important factor, and I am inclined to believe that the greatest successes Azerbaijan has achieved are in the field of foreign policy, and we should be honest about it. Armenia is de facto isolated, and everyone it counted on will not facilitate this aggressive policy. Because of Azerbaijan’s various actions. Everything is clear here. As for the neighbors, I would wish them to choose the right path, both in terms of strengthening their defense capabilities and building a favorable foreign policy environment. The main thing is not to become a tool in someone else’s hands.
Rauf Nasirov
Translated from Minval.az
