The geography of the South Caucasus is such that the potential for conflict is assessed as very high. Our region is a frontier—no matter how you look at it. A frontier between continents, between military-political and economic blocs, between large and powerful neighbors.
For three decades, Azerbaijan was in conflict with Armenia. Along with de-occupying its territories, Baku made efforts to break free from the constraints of conflict management imposed largely by Russia, and to a lesser extent by the United States and Europe. Even with occupied territories, Azerbaijan managed to secure maximum sovereignty.
The 44-day war of 2020 and the anti-terrorist measures of 2023 created conditions for changes in the region that are unfolding in a peaceful atmosphere, with the main actors being the countries of the region themselves.
As the President of Azerbaijan noted:
“… I am confident that from now on the Azerbaijani people will live in conditions of peace.”
The peace agenda with Armenia is expanding and deepening. The parliamentary elections in Armenia in June 2026 should mark a point of no return in the peace process.
However, both around the South Caucasus and in international relations in general, situations are emerging in which Azerbaijan could be drawn into a war. Let us try to consider the possible scenarios in order of their relevance.
Iran
Military operations against Iran by the United States and Israel. During the 12-day war in 2025, the South Caucasus remained outside active hostilities. If the current strikes are aimed at regime change in Iran, Tehran may wage war differently. At a minimum, based on the experience of the previous war, strikes may begin with sabotage against Iran’s military-political leadership, resulting in new figures coming to power whose decisions could be highly unpredictable and could affect Azerbaijan.
A civil war in Iran between supporters of the current authorities and their diverse opponents. In this case, chaos in the border areas is possible, along with the emergence of uncontrolled armed groups that may perceive the border as a line toward which the enemy should be pushed. Azerbaijan could find itself on the front line, and Baku would have to respond in order to safeguard the security of its borders.
Russia
A direct military invasion of one of the South Caucasus countries, or a repetition of a “special military operation” scenario similar to Venezuela. In reality, Russia’s “special military operation” does not work as intended: it begins as an SVO but ends up as a conventional war of conquest. This scenario remains relevant despite the unfinished war in Ukraine.
In the event of a deterioration in relations between Putin and Trump—which is possible—Russia would have to react in regions where the United States has no security commitments. Put simply, the South Caucasus countries are on the list of states for which the United States would not threaten Russia with the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a Russian invasion.
Armenia
If pro-Russian forces win the parliamentary elections in Armenia, Russia may increase its military presence there under allied obligations and could use border disputes to escalate the situation.
The most extravagant scenario is that even if pro-Russian forces lose the elections, Russia recognizes them as the winner and the legitimate authority in order to use their appeals as a pretext for military intervention. This would be an all-in gamble for which Moscow currently lacks the resources.
Turkey’s Wars
Azerbaijan is a military-political ally of Türkiye, with an obligation to provide military assistance upon request. In most cases, these arrangements are viewed as Türkiye providing military support to Azerbaijan; however, the current historical period may make Azerbaijan’s military assistance to Türkiye more relevant. In the event of a collapse of NATO, a security vacuum would emerge in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Middle East also remains a zone of instability, although the overall environment currently creates favorable conditions for Türkiye.
Farhad Mammadov
