This marks a more than twofold increase in trade volume between Yerevan and Moscow in just one year. Considering that Armenian-Russian trade grew by almost 56% in 2023, there is a clear trend.
This raises the question: how sincere is Armenia towards the West in its claims of moving away from a pro-Russian stance in favor of the European Union and the United States? This is no idle question, as the economic component often plays a crucial role in the real nature of relations between states. On the other hand, why are the U.S. and EU, which see Armenia as their “little sister” and hope for its escape from Moscow’s influence, silently accepting these trade figures, especially given that Russia is under Western sanctions?
In light of these developments, let’s examine some important nuances. Since 2022, following the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and the imposition of sanctions, Armenia has become the fourth-largest exporter of semiconductors and other dual-use goods to Russia. In that same year, Armenia’s GDP grew by more than 14%, with The Telegraph labeling the country’s economic growth as “absurd,” placing it as a candidate for third place among the fastest-growing economies globally.
In the summer of 2023, U.S. State Department Sanctions Coordinator Jim O’Brien candidly named Armenia as one of the countries circumventing Western sanctions. Supporting this, in the fall of 2023, Armenian Deputy Finance Minister Vahan Sirunyan stated that the “almost 85% growth in exports to Russia in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period last year was significantly driven by re-exports, accounting for 80.6%, while goods of Armenian origin contributed just 4.4%.” Simultaneously, Ze’ev Hanin, head of the Post-Soviet Conflict Research Program at Israel’s Begin-Sadat Center, expressed concern over Armenia becoming a “major hub for supplying goods to Russia in violation of Western sanctions.”
In February of this year, the American think tank Jamestown Foundation also pointed to “unusual changes in Armenia’s trade statistics and its economic relations with Russia following the start of the war against Ukraine,” raising suspicions about Armenia’s role in re-exporting sanctioned goods to Russia, including technological components, machinery, and transport equipment. The data available to the foundation on Russia’s share of Armenian exports clearly “suggests Yerevan’s role in aiding Moscow in its trade, which has been affected by sanctions.”
At the same time, Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, provided data showing that Armenian exports to Russia had grown by 430% compared to pre-war figures, emphasizing that this likely involved the re-export of goods from the EU and China to Russia. Brooks further highlighted that Armenia’s exports to Kazakhstan (up 1200%), Kyrgyzstan (up 1600%), Uzbekistan (up 250%), and the UAE (up 900%) had surged, with much of this ultimately going to Russia.
These numbers speak for themselves. The Washington Post, back in the spring of 2023, already warned that the West might “increase pressure on Armenia due to the sharp rise in re-exports of critical goods, including electronics, to Russia.” Yet, this has not resulted in any significant action, and the question remains: where is this “muscle flexing” from the U.S. and the EU?
The term “muscle flexing” seems ironic given the steps taken by Washington and Brussels in relation to Yerevan, including supplying it with arms and, in some cases, providing military personnel. All of this occurs against the backdrop of Western sanctions campaigns against Russia, which are advertised as comprehensive and strict, while the West frequently accuses countries like China and Turkey of trying to bypass these sanctions.
But for Armenia, bypassing sanctions appears to be permissible. In fact, it is happening legally, allowing some analysts to suggest that the West, by turning a blind eye, is effectively bolstering Armenia’s budget to increase its capacity to pay for the arms flowing into Yerevan.
Such hypocrisy runs the world. And, when it comes to Armenia, the political establishment of the U.S. and the EU seems to gently pat Yerevan on the head, creating a sense of satisfaction within the Armenian government. Otherwise, how else could one interpret Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan’s statement that Moscow and Yerevan are working together to strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries?
Teymur Atayev
Translated from minval.az
