Contrary to Yerevan’s hysterics and cries about a “blockade”, people were constantly being let through the Lachin checkpoint in both directions. After Yerevan decided to picket the ICRC office, the figures were revealed: since December last year, 700 people have been transported through the Lachin checkpoint for medical treatment. But groups of 60 people have rarely passed through here. Moreover, this time it was not a Red Cross “medical evacuation”: this was the Russian peacekeepers taking the holders of Russian passports out of Karabakh. And it was not only women and children who were leaving, but also men of conscription and combat-capable age.
This is more serious than it may seem. A few months ago, there was a lot of talk about the possibility of repeating the so-called “Tskhinvali version” in Karabakh. Translation: Karabakh Armenians would get Russian passports, and then Russia would take them under its protection. Officially no one has confirmed these plans, but the parallels between Karabakh and Donbass were hinted at personally by Lavrov, a.k.a. Kalantaryan. Moreover, “Youth Army” branches were already being organized in Karabakh schools. But now that the holders of Russian passports are being taken out of Karabakh by the Russian peacekeepers the viability of the “Tskhinvali option” does not seem very credible. The game fizzled out before it even began.
Moreover, this mass evacuation of Russian passport holders may also indicate a dangerous increase in the probability of a “hot scenario”. For which, let’s be realistic, the Khankendi puppets of the Yerevan revanchists have done their best. This includes regular attempts to carry out fortification work, the ongoing radio terrorism against Azerbaijani civil aviation, the rejection of dialogue with official Baku, and most importantly, the fact that at least 10,000 soldiers of the Armenian army still remain in Karabakh, or rather, in the area of irresponsibility of the Russian peacekeepers’ roses, and the illegal armed groups created by the separatists have not yet been disbanded and disarmed.
Finally, serious conclusions should also be drawn from the failure of the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Armenia can, of course, come up with all sorts of soothing official versions in an attempt to gloss over its diplomatic failure, but it does not look very convincing. Any unbiased observer has been able to see that the world has no intention of rushing to the aid of “small but proud long-suffering Armenia”.
And, most importantly, both Yerevan and the Khankendi puppets have made considerable efforts to wreck the post-war negotiation process. But now they have stumbled upon an unpleasant reality like an iceberg in the fog: the alternative to “bad negotiations” is not “good negotiations”. The alternative to negotiations, as Levon Ter-Petrosyan warned back in the late nineties, is war. One can debate for a long time what Armenia’s real chances were to win in September 2020. At any rate, the “clatter of dropped jaws” of the world military expert community after Azerbaijan’s victory gives food for thought here. But today Armenia does not have even theoretical chances of success. Nor does it have any of its former external advocates.
In this context, the simultaneous departure from Karabakh of several dozens of Russian passport holders brings to mind a truth well known to seasoned shepherds. For sheep, home is their flock. When they are scared, they try to stick together. But at some point, the cowardly ones cannot take it anymore and bolt. Then all the rest follow, sweeping away everything in their path.
Such parallels in politics certainly sound risky and not very politically correct. But there is no doubt that collective fear is growing in Khankendi. In November 2020, when Russian peacekeepers were first entering Karabakh, they could hope for a restart of the “Miatsum” under Russia’s wing. But today it is quite clear that there will be no “Miatsum 2.0”, but an anti-terrorist operation is more than likely.
And if Russian citizens are being taken out of Karabakh, by the peacekeepers themselves, too, there is no doubt, this is a cry to leg it. And, judging by many indirect signs, a new wave of flight is rising in Khankendi. If during the 44-day war they fled to wait out the storm in a safer Armenia, today they are leaving for good. They realize that the full restoration of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh is not long in coming, that they will have to answer for their past actions during the occupation, that they will no longer be able to play at separatism, and it does not matter whether this separatism is carried out with Yerevan’s or Moscow’s support in mind.
Thus, for the most ardent supporters of “reunification with Armenia” this “reunification” turns out to be quite different from what they dreamed of—in the form of moving to the territory of Armenia.
