In Baku, Shoigu had discussions with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The president emphasized the importance of regular contacts between Azerbaijan and Russia concerning regional developments. He stated that Azerbaijan-Russia relations serve as an example for some neighboring countries and considered it a crucial factor for security in the South Caucasus and the broader region. Shoigu, in turn, expressed gratitude for the sincere and warm welcome, noted that personal relationships between the heads of the two states are based on this, and highlighted the successful development of relations between our countries in regional security, military-technical, transport, and economic spheres. He mentioned that very important issues on the agenda of bilateral cooperation are being successfully resolved. The Secretary of the Russian Security Council also assured that his country supports the normalization process of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Additionally, they discussed cooperation prospects in the “3+3” format.
However, many experts believe that Shoigu’s voyage to Tehran and Baku is “last-minute diplomacy” aimed at avoiding a major war in the Middle East. Almost everyone has spoken in recent days about the world being on the brink of such a war. Iranian authorities cannot ignore the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It’s not just about the “insult” and the “murder of a guest.” For Iran, it is much more important to demonstrate its readiness to defend its “proxies” or at least respond to the elimination of their leaders. One might recall that Iran has already raised the red flag of revenge, attacked Israel with hundreds of rockets and drones, but all this did not escalate into a major war. But today, it might not “just pass.”
For Iran’s neighbors, including Azerbaijan, a “big war” involving this country carries too many risks. Russia does not directly border Iran, but it has its own interests. Tehran is a valuable ally and partner for Moscow: as a supplier of drones for strikes on Ukrainian cities, as an important link in military logistics, and in many other delicate issues. Therefore, the Kremlin least wants Iran to be “smeared against the wall.” And this could very well happen if Iran crosses “red lines” in its attack on Israel. In that case, it is quite possible that the retaliation will come not only from Israel but also from its allies, including the USA. Washington might be irritated by some actions of Netanyahu, but not enough to “abandon” its ally, especially before the elections, when it least wants to “give up the issue” along with votes to Donald Trump with his stable anti-Iranian image.
As a result, Moscow is using all levers, from diplomacy to military support. Neutral “corridor” flights over the Caspian Sea carry planes with weapons to Iran. And Shoigu held talks in Tehran and is now meeting with Azerbaijan’s leadership in Baku.
Undoubtedly, Baku and Moscow have much to discuss without Iran, including security matters. But in the context of the current developments around Iran, too much indicates that Shoigu’s voyage aims to avoid a major war around Iran. It’s clear why the talks were held in Baku: Azerbaijan has recently warmed its relations with Iran, maintains constructive relations with Israel, and it was on Azerbaijani territory that the heads of the general staffs of Russia, the USA, and NATO met. In this situation, Azerbaijan can add the mere fact of the negotiations to its assets.
Another matter is the chances of saving Iran from a “demonstrative defeat.” Here, things are not so smooth. The development of the situation around Iran leaves a strong sense of déjà vu. The same “neutral corridor” over the Caspian was used by Russian transport planes on the eve and during the 44-day war, to then turn north through Iranian airspace and deliver their deadly cargo to Armenia, where a “new war for new territories,” access to the Kura, the capture of Barda, Terter, and Ganja, and if lucky, a “tea party in Baku” was planned. Shoigu also visited Baku back then, assuring that these planes were delivering “building materials.” Today, their cargo can be seen in Baku’s Military Trophies Park. The war ended with Armenia’s defeat.
Furthermore, Shoigu’s diplomacy is very reminiscent of March 2003, on the eve of the second Iraq war. On March 17, when the US and its allies’ troops massed at Iraq’s borders were waiting for the order to advance, Yevgeny Primakov, an accomplice of the “Black January” of 1990 in Baku, arrived in Baghdad. By that time, Primakov had been both Foreign Minister and even Prime Minister, but most importantly, he remained the Kremlin’s unofficial curator of the Middle East, where he had experience, connections, and authority. However, Primakov failed to find a diplomatic solution and avoid the second war. His “last-minute maneuver” did not succeed. On March 20, the US and its allies began a full-scale invasion of Iraq. And Shoigu, frankly speaking, is not Primakov. Moreover, Sergey Shoigu’s position sounds impressive — Secretary of the Security Council. But in reality, he is a dismissed defense minister amid failures in Ukraine, and members of his team in the “Arbat Military District” are being arrested in droves on corruption charges.
So, Iran better show restraint in time and not overly rely on Russia to save it from any troubles.
Nurani
Translated from Minval.az
