This time the incident occurred in the newly erected Lachin border checkpoint when Azerbaijani border patrol attempted to raise a flag over the opposite side of the Hakari river. As a result of fire from the Armenian side, an Azerbaijani serviceman was injured.
The firing point of the enemy was silenced by the retaliatory fire, though both sides issued critical statements accusing each other of violating the ceasefire regime. On the same day, as a result of retaliatory measures, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces neutralised two snipers of the Armenian Armed Forces around the Lachin road.
In addition, on June 16, members of illegal Armenian armed groups in the territory of Azerbaijan, where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily deployed, fired at the positions of the Azerbaijani army in the direction of the Shusha region.
In the post-war period, Azerbaijan took a firm stance toward the illegal Armenian armed groups in Karabakh and harshly criticised the Russian peacekeeping contingent for not taking adequate measures against arms supply and building new defence lines in the war-torn region.
Since March 2023, Azerbaijani authorities released several video footage demonstrating the de-facto separatist regime using dirt roads north of the Lachin road to transport from Armenia manpower, ammunition, mines, as well as other military equipment for illegal Armenian armed detachments in the territory of Azerbaijan and to set new passage routes for this purpose.
However, Armenia’s Defense Ministry has rejected as “untrue” an accusation from Azerbaijan that Yerevan is transporting military equipment to the Karabakh region via ground routes bypassing the Lachin road. Notwithstanding frequent incidents in Karabakh, Baku and Yerevan keep holding ministerial and leader meetings to discuss the final peace treaty document and border security issues, albeit unsuccessfully.
In mid-May, President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Brussels to continue the peace talks upon the invitation of Charles Michel, president of the European Council. The discussion addressed questions of border delimitation, with the two countries’ leaders agreeing to resume bilateral meetings to address the issue and confirm their commitment to the borders established in the 1991 Almaty Declaration.
Moreover, the leaders agreed to proceed with the talks in Moldova to reach a consensus on border delimitation issues. As such, on June 1, Aliyev and Pashinyan held a five-sided meeting with the participation of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French leader Emmanuel Macron in Chisinau. The meeting’s main agenda was devoted to issues related to unblocking regional transport and economic infrastructures, border delimitation and border security between the two countries, including the agreement on normalising relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
However, the recent armed incident at the Lachin checkpoint suggests that the final peace deal between Baku-Yerevan is not on the horizon. Moreover, that meeting was short in the end and produced no breakthrough. But the fact that negotiations are being conducted steadily and that progress is being made on an agreement has reinforced Azerbaijan’s patience.
Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan’s stance on the peace deal seems straightforward. According to President Aliyev, Baku is not hurrying to sign an agreement. “We are the stronger side; we are the ones who have a strong position at the negotiating table; we are the ones who have a strong position on the border,” he said. “Even if the peace treaty is not signed, we will live comfortably and safely.”
Besides, Aliyev’s remarks should not come as a surprise as he earlier stated that 2023 is the last year for peace talks, which means that Baku resorts its right to exercise military power in the case of necessity.
Also, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election in Türkiye for the next five years gives more confidence to Azerbaijan in terms of the upper hand in the peace process. As such, President Erdogan’s official visit to Baku right after the critical elections was a signal to Yerevan and other regional actors regarding Ankara’s strengthening influence in the region and commitment to maintaining a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan strongly believes that after the establishment of the Lachin border checkpoint, it fully controls the situation on the ground, which makes the peace treaty for Baku less critical. However, such incidents in the border area and flowing arms supply to Karabakh may force Azerbaijan to conduct the long-awaited but limited military operation soon if the real threat is inevitable.
Notwithstanding, the likeliest scenario for Baku and Yerevan is to strike a peace deal until the end of 2023 or at least reach a consensus on several important issues in order to reduce the risks of the renewed large-scale standoff.
Fuad Shahbazov
Caliber.Az
