The supply of Western weaponry to Armenia remains a focal point of interest for the expert community, and even those without military expertise are beginning to question the combat effectiveness of French and Indian “Caesars,” German anti-tank missiles, and so on. But should Armenia be too enthusiastic about these “gifts of arms”? Let’s break it down.
First and foremost, let’s look at the absolute numbers. What has been delivered to Armenia from France, India, and other countries is enough to provoke legitimate indignation in Azerbaijan but not enough to change the balance of power on the front lines. Armenia might gain an advantage in a small area, stage a provocation, and then inevitably face a retaliatory strike across the entire front, where Armenian military positions remain just as vulnerable. After the 44-day war in 2020 and the anti-terrorist raids in 2023, military experts estimate that Armenia’s military losses amount to $5 billion. Attempting to “patch up” such losses with even the most advanced French “Caesars,” let alone dreaming of gaining an advantage over Baku, is not just unrealistic; it’s sheer delirium.
Moreover, it is unlikely that Western countries will significantly increase arms supplies to Armenia, at least not while the conflict in Ukraine continues. Additionally, amid the war in Ukraine, NATO’s eastern borders are being strengthened, and tensions are rising in the Middle East. Given this context, it is doubtful that Armenia will be provided with billions of dollars worth of weaponry at the first sign of distress.
Next, one could debate the merits and drawbacks of the French-made Indian-assembled self-propelled artillery systems and recall, or not, that Ukrainian soldiers have a less-than-flattering opinion of the “Caesars”: bulky, temperamental, with poor off-road capabilities, and even ordinary mud can render them inoperative. But there is no doubt that these self-propelled guns are far from being the “wonder weapons” some might hope for, and they certainly won’t fundamentally change the balance of power on the front line, especially if we’re only talking about one battalion. A modern army is always a “team effort,” a combination of actions by various units, each with its own tasks and weapons to accomplish them. One, even the best and most effective, weapon system cannot decide the outcome alone.
Finally, the combat effectiveness of a weapon depends not only on its technical characteristics. As those in the know often joke, you can pay for a high-end outfit from a luxury boutique once, then mix and match a Calvin Klein top, Trussardi jeans, a Versace leather jacket, Chloe shoes, and accessorize it all with a Louis Vuitton bag and a Hermes scarf. But with weapons, it’s more complicated. The “Caesar” self-propelled guns, for instance, require ammunition, specifically of NATO caliber and type. Today, amid the Ukrainian war, there’s a “shell shortage” on both sides of the front.
But the most crucial point is that weapons also need technical maintenance, and professional maintenance at that. You can’t just fix them with the principle of “my neighbor Ashot can fix any car in his garage so well that it will plow the ground with its nose!” Spare parts and components will need to be stockpiled, repair workshops set up, and specialists trained, and this entire infrastructure will be needed for each type of weapon. Without such a “behind-the-scenes system,” even the most modern and sophisticated weapons are no more than expensive scrap metal. This is why armies love standardization. In Armenia, all this infrastructure exists, but it’s based on Russian-made weapons. Unfortunately, you can’t fit a “Msta-S” chassis onto a French “Caesar,” nor repair a “Mistral” air defense system with parts from an “Osa.”
The peculiarity of the situation is that Armenia took a different approach. It relied on “weapons begging” during the good times of its relationship with Russia. Now, Armenia is begging for weapons from the West and is forced to equip its army according to the old joke about the “masterpiece of Soviet cuisine — the Caucasian dish ‘Eat What You Get.'” In other words, Armenia is arming itself with whatever it can scrounge up, even if it’s not the most modern or effective model. Finally, the Armenian military’s armament is becoming very diverse: some leftovers from Russia, some purchases from Iran, some handouts from France… And for each model, a whole chain of repair workshops, spare parts, and components will need to be set up. Is Yerevan up to this task? Especially now?
Another point is that in Yerevan, they love to create and believe in legends. And in the current context, Western-made weapons are seen almost as a sure sign that Armenia has received “security guarantees,” that all NATO countries — maybe excluding Turkey — will rush to fight for Armenia’s territorial claims against Azerbaijan if Armenia can convincingly cry for help. This is dangerous for everyone. But the biggest risks lie with Armenia itself. The same Armenia that has already lost two wars with Azerbaijan and is now preparing to engage in a third, which it is also guaranteed to lose.
Only this time, the Military Trophy Park in Baku will be expanded with not just Russian-made exhibits.
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
