Russia and Iran can be singled out among them. No matter how much they dislike Azerbaijan, both of our neighbors are currently interested in things going smoothly in our country. It sounds a bit strange, doesn’t it? One may wonder how wanting stability in Azerbaijan fits in with Russia’s and Iran’s plans. It is no secret that at present they have common interests with regard to Azerbaijan. The countries of the region are under pressure from the West. Losing one of them to the United States could have a domino effect. And for this reason, the formula “one for all, all for one” is being applied to the processes taking place here. Most importantly, the post-war realities force Moscow and Tehran to be delicate with Azerbaijan. Baku has gained the status of a key capital. Massive processes are underway here…
The main country interested in political processes in Azerbaijan is Türkiye. Strategic allied, brotherly, friendly relations prompt Ankara and Baku to proceed from the same interests. Therefore, the processes taking place in both countries are being closely monitored.
We saw this again in the presidential and parliamentary elections held in Türkiye in May this year. The Azerbaijani public wanted the victory of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party. The main reason for this was Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan in the 44-day Patriotic War. But Türkiye has been the most beloved and trusted state in our country for the last 30 years as it is.
Azerbaijanis prayed for Erdoğan’s re-election. How keenly we watched TV, websites, social media on the election day… After the results were announced, Baku was abuzz with excitement.
Azerbaijan’s official policy also supported Erdoğan. This was not only driven by national interests. There was a duty of brotherhood and loyalty. Official Baku spared no moral and political support for the election of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan without interfering in Türkiye’s internal affairs.
The elections were not easy for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. There were several reasons for this. The opposition parties were united, organized. They went into the elections with a joint candidate. In big cities like Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, the heads of municipalities are from the Republican People’s Party. This also had a major impact on the elections and public opinion. Moreover, 2 months before the elections, a devastating earthquake occurred in Türkiye. This also complicated the situation.
Ilham Aliyev’s situation in the run-up to the elections is rosy. He took his country out of 30 years of occupation to a great victory. Azerbaijan’s sovereignty has been fully restored. Territorial integrity has been secured. Separatism and occupation have been eliminated. Khankendi is under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan. Other lands have also been liberated from occupation. Ilham Aliyev is heading to the elections at the peak of his rating. There are currently no politicians in Azerbaijan who could compete with Ilham Aliyev in the elections. The opposition, on the other hand, is going through deep moral, psychological and political turmoil. How will they criticize Ilham Aliyev? They are in shock. They are lost in a maze.
Nevertheless, we are witnessing a serious pressure on our country. The biased campaign, coming mainly from the West, shows itself every day. The US, EU are not giving up their prejudiced approach towards Azerbaijan. The West attacks official Baku, fully mobilizing agents of influence here, and media under its control.
This situation is not in Türkiye’s interests either. Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have ambitious plans for the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Besides, the Zangezur corridor and large-scale logistics projects are the number one item on the agenda of both presidents. In this sensitive and important period, the weakening of one of the two Turkic republics threatens the interests and security of the other.
It is therefore quite natural that Türkiye is showing serious interest in the February 7 elections in Azerbaijan.
The means of influencing the elections have been exhausted. As we said earlier, there is no successful, vibrant and strong candidate to challenge Ilham Aliyev. Imagine, Ali Kerimli cannot move far away from video blogging now. To what extent can public opinion be manipulated with populist talking points? It is easy to criticize the government on the backdrop of a great victory, but it is much more difficult to gain public support. Most importantly, the nation knows very well that any political changes in the country could lead to great disasters. Therefore, the public is not looking for risky ventures; it fully understands the reality and acts accordingly.
Ilham Aliyev has resolved internal issues. He has no problems with getting votes from the public. He also has no problems with neighboring states. There is no threat from Russia and Iran. Political, economic, diplomatic relations have been established at a high level with countries of other regions as well. The West’s mechanisms of influence fail and weaken with each passing day. Arrests are not uncommon. Emotional reactions should not be discounted either. Most likely, these are special operations based on serious intelligence data.
Türkiye went through the same thing a few months ago. This is where Ankara understands Baku. The last three years have revealed one truth: the relations between Türkiye and Azerbaijan go beyond brotherhood, it is more than a strategic alliance. These two fraternal states are partners in destiny. A stone that hits one hurts the other.
Important as the May 14 and 28 elections in Türkiye were, the February 7 elections in Azerbaijan are just as important and strategic.
Both nations have grand goals for the next stage. Under the leadership of Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the road starting from the South Caucasus stretches to Turkestan and from there to the Asia-Pacific region. The settlement of the Karabakh issue was a step on a long road. There are great milestones ahead, mountains to be conquered. The road continues…
Azer Aykhan
Translated from Globalinfo.az
